Since June 6, foreign traders have been advised not to focus on the ruble exchange rate set by the Moscow Exchange. According to the Association of Emerging Markets Traders (Trade Association for the Emerging Markets, EMTA), it is more correct to use WM/Refinitiv price data to determine the exchange rate of the Russian currency, Bloomberg said the day before, citing an EMTA statement. Experts say that the loud message of the profile association, which includes the largest foreign business structures, will not affect anything.
Economist, member of the Supervisory Board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers Alexander Razuvaev believes that foreign traders can evaluate the ruble exchange rate as they please, but transactions with Russian market players will be carried out exclusively at the exchange rate set by the Moscow Exchange.
“There is the Moscow Exchange, this is how the ruble exchange rate develops. All imports - only at this rate, regardless of whether foreign partners recognize it or not. Yes, we have now experienced a complete rupture of economic ties, but for the same gas, the countries of the European Union are paying us in rubles at the rate of the Moscow Exchange. In other words, the exchange rate of the ruble, which Western traders will set when concluding transactions, is is completely and utterly irrelevant for us”, - commented economist Alexander Razuvayev.
Artyom Tuzov, Executive Director of the Capital Department of Univer Capital LLC, adds that the decision of the Emerging Markets Traders Association is purely advisory. The expert also believes that the difference in the calculations is purely a technical story. And it will concern more the internal accounting reports of the participants in the transactions.
Artyom Tuzov admits that the exchange rate set both by the Moscow Exchange and abroad cannot be called a market one today. “For traders inside Russia, due to the difference in liquidity, it is more logical to use the real exchange rate, but we have our own exchange rate set inside Russia today. And nothing will change for our country. We trade exclusively at our exchange rate”, - comments Artyom Tuzov.
According to him, in practice, transactions will be carried out according to the usual scheme: the importer, who, naturally, needs to receive income, will announce his price to the buyer. It does not matter in what currency - in rubles, in dollars, in euros, or it will be the Chinese yuan. Then it is up to our buyer where and at what rate he will take this currency in order to pay.
It should be noted that the EMTA association includes such giants as Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, etc.
According to RBC, many experts called the sharp strengthening of the ruble artificial. Without taking into account the measures taken by the Russian authorities, the dollar would have been at the level of 180 rubles, according to currency strategist at Wells Fargo Securities Brendan McKenna.
As of the morning of May 11, the ruble continues to strengthen. At the beginning of currency trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar exchange rate was 70.03 rubles, the euro exchange rate - 73.80 rubles.