$ 950 per thousand cubic meters: who is fanning the gas hysteria in Europe

Experts believe that gas speculators are deliberately fanning the hysteria.

Gennady Charodeyev

Europeans have something to worry about. Less than a month before the start of the heating season, the current fuel stocks in their storages, according to Blomberg, lag behind last year's accumulations by almost a quarter - 24.6 billion cubic meters. And the market fears that in winter the EU countries may experience a fuel shortage.

One of the main sources of supply is LNG producers. However, it is known that this year they redirected cargo to more commercially attractive markets in Asia. Compared to last year, supplies to Europe decreased by more than 17 billion cubic meters. At the same time, Gazprom does not increase supplies to Europe until the launch of Nord Stream 2, and the region has to compete with Asia and South America on the price of gas in order to redirect part of the LNG cargo to itself.

In addition, Moscow stated in plain text: the launch of Nord Stream 2 could help Europe to lower gas prices. And there, a number of politicians oppose the launch of the gas pipeline, and the European bureaucracy generally declares that the paperwork will take at least 2-3 months. And winter does not wait!

“The rise in gas prices was the result of a whole range of factors”, - Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation , told Novye Izvestia. - Gazprom limited gas supplies, LNG went to Asia, Norway faced problems at the gas field, there was a shortage of coal, and the production of wind power fell due to the lack of strong winds in the North Sea. Algeria, which itself needs gas, has reduced its exports. LNG producers want to make more money and send gas to where they can get more money for it. Small volumes reach Europe, but they are not enough. It was the lack of LNG supplies that created a shortage in the European gas market.

Probably, Gazprom could supply more blue fuel to Europe, but here, from a commercial point of view, the monopolist, apparently, does not see any sense in this. In case of an increase in the volume of supplies, it is necessary to drive gas through Ukraine. The corresponding transit contract implies that Russia will have to pay for additional pumping volumes at an increased tariff, Igor Yushkov believes.

By the way, experts believe that high gas prices give absolutely nothing to Gazprom, which in Europe is called one of the culprits of the price crisis. The fact is that the prices of the Russian monopoly are tied to oil prices and amount to about $ 300 per thousand cubic meters under long-term contracts. On August 25, Gazprom refused to sell one-off batches at current market prices - the concern closed the sale of additional gas volumes on its electronic trading platform (ETP) for a year.

Mikhail Krutikhin, an oil and gas market analyst, told Novye Izvestia that consumers in Asia are already expressing dissatisfaction with the level of gas prices. China, in particular, is going to take measures not to pay so much for blue fuel. But now we must bear in mind that the supply and demand factor in the world market has gone second.

“You understand that this hysteria in the world media is being fueled very well by someone. In fact, there is enough fuel in European gas storage facilities to survive the cold winter. The initiative was intercepted by speculators. There is a very big game with gas futures contracts. large companies have joined, which deliberately inflate hysterics in the press about shortages, shortages, etc. They whip up psychological fear: everything is lost, everything is lost! Even the American agency Bloomberg is actively involved in this. The psychological factor has come to the fore. - expert Krutikhin noted in an interview with Novye Izvestia.