In their forecasts, experts are as careful as possible: too many factors overnight can change everything. We have collected for you a fresh squeeze of expert opinions on what will happen to the dollar in the coming days and in the long term.
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation on the eve provided the government with an important document with the main parameters of the scenario conditions for the forecast of the country's socio-economic development for 2023.
The agency predicts that the average annual fluctuation of the exchange rate in the current year will be kept within the boundaries of 76.7 rubles. per dollar. By the end of 2022, the Ministry of Economic Development expects the dollar to reach 76 rubles.
Cresco Finance asset manager Stepan Sumin agrees with the forecast of the federal agency. He claims: "If we talk about the average values of the dollar by the end of the year, then the range can be 72-76 rubles".
Sound for the national currency and other forecasts. In FG "Finam" do not rule out that by the end of the year the dollar may cost 80 rubles. Renaissance Capital sees the exchange rate at the level of 85 rubles per dollar at the end of 2022 and in the range of 90-100 rubles per dollar in 2023, according to the banki.ru portal.
In the short term, until the end of May, for sure, the national currency, according to experts, is guaranteed to have the potential for strengthening.
“The tax period that will take place at the end of the current month (when exporters traditionally sell foreign currency - editor's note) will help keep the ruble in the range of 62.5-64.7 rubles. per dollar", - says Stepan Sumin.
Analysts of the Bank "Saint-Petersburg" in their report remind that at the moment the rate dropped to the level of 62.75 rubles. per dollar, updating the February 2020 low. "The strengthening of the ruble continues to be supported by low demand for foreign currency due to import restrictions, while the inflow of foreign exchange earnings remains significant", - the bank's analysts say. This week, although the exchange rate may reach 65 rubles per dollar, the ruble still has the potential to renew new local highs
It's worth reminding that in the first half of March, due to a military special operation (VSO), the value of the dollar and the euro reached a historical maximum: 121 rubles. and 132 rubles. respectively. In a matter of days, the currency has risen in price by more than 50%. After just a couple of months, the ruble became the absolute record holder. By mid-May, the dollar reached the bottom, its value fell to 62.63 rubles, the euro fell to 67 rubles. On May 12, Bloomberg named the Russian ruble the best currency in the world.