In the meantime, the situation is such that April futures on the market are at $97.38. May also grow, but not so much. Now they can be purchased on the stock exchange at $94.15 per barrel.
The aggravation of the conflict around Ukraine, which will entail sanctions against the Russian oil and gas sector, could cause oil prices to rise above $100 and a global energy crisis, Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director of the group for natural resources and commodities of the international rating agency Fitch, predicts in an interview with TASS.
“Russia’s share in the world oil market is more than 10%, there is nothing to replace it, there is little free capacity, especially considering the gradual recovery in demand, even if sanctions on Iran can be lifted in the near future”, - Marinchenko said.
The geopolitical premium in the price of oil now is likely to be in the order of $15 per barrel. If everything goes according to a calm scenario, which assumes the absence of further escalation, minimal sanctions that do not affect the oil and gas sector, and the freezing of the conflict, then the premium will come to naught, the expert noted.
If the aggravation gains momentum, moves into a more acute phase, which in response could lead to sanctions against Russian oil exports, the price “could potentially significantly exceed $100 per barrel.” Such a scenario "could provoke an energy crisis", - Marinchenko stressed.
Another expert, lecturer at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) under the President of Russia, economist Vladislav Ginko commented on the situation in an interview with Sputnik radio.
According to him, in addition to geopolitical reasons, the growth in the cost of oil was also affected by the rate on green energy.
“The United States has decided to jump sharply into green energy. They tried to convince the world community that they should not invest in the oil industry and should not work with countries that produce oil and gas. The United States seemed to want to regulate investments, but they did not succeed. This attempt hit them themselves”, - explained Vladislav Ginko.
Given the risks that the global economy has been exposed to lately, the economist predicts that $97 per barrel will not be the price cap. According to him, by the end of the year the price of oil could soar to $200.
“This year we will see oil already at $200 per barrel. Options traders will take $200 exactly. We will obviously pass the mark of $100, since 97 is almost 100. But further more. By the end of the year we will see $200 per barrel. I am sure that this prediction of mine will come true”, - Ginko said.