According to RIA Novosti, referring to the study of the National Credit Ratings, in 2021 the key rate will grow to 5-5.25%. At the same time, the first jump should be expected in April. If a negative inflationary scenario is realized, the rate may reach 6%.
"Accelerated transition to neutral monetary policy will provoke a jump in average interest rates on loans. In all credit segments, a sharp increase in average rates is likely: they will add 0.75-1 percentage points by the end of the year", - analysts say.
To preserve the marginality of the business, credit institutions will not actively raise rates on deposits of individuals. The growth of these rates is expected at the level of 0.5-0.75 pp until the end of 2021.
The fact that borrowers are going to raise lending rates was announced last month. Experts pointed out that the introduction of the concept of "inviolable income" in the amount of the living wage will lead to an increase in lending rates.
It's worth reminding that over the year the share of overdue consumer loans in the country increased by a quarter. Most of all, the increase in delinquencies is noted in the segment of consumer lending. The share of overdue microloans increased by 3.9 percentage points. up to 26.9%, for credit cards - by 0.3 percentage points. up to 7.2%. But on mortgage, on the contrary, it decreased - by 0.1 percentage points. up to 1.3%.