Russia's new "weapon" is grain export: why Bloomberg omits harvest data

Gennady Charodeyev

Analysts from the US Department of Agriculture drew such a bad prospect for Russia. The Americans literally shocked the markets with their forecast of an allegedly significant decline in the harvest in Russia this year. Natural disasters are to blame. Here, they say, the world prices for wheat and jumped.

A number of Western experts sneer at the questionposed by The National Interest: Will wheat become a new Russian weapon? And they themselves answer: “The Russians take too much freedom. Wheat is dying from drought, prices on the world market are skyrocketing. A record harvest will be born - grain is getting cheaper everywhere”.

Last year for Russia, nevertheless, it is believed in the United States, was one of the best for grain crops - the total harvest amounted to more than 133 million tons of grain. Therefore, lower indicators than last year - "this, in itself, is not a tragedy".

According to the estimates of the American agricultural department, the wheat harvest in Russia in 2021 could amount to about 72.5 million tons.

Bloomberg insists that Russian wheat has become less competitive amid the government's imposition of export taxes after Putin complained about rising food prices in the country and a cut in the harvest due to bad weather.

According to the newspaper, Russian supplies account for only a fifth of the tenders for Egypt's leading importers this season, which is the minimum for at least seven years.

Russia has traditionally dominated sales in North Africa and Europe, thanks to record yields of cheap grain. And the loss of market share this season cannot but rejoice competing suppliers from the Black Sea region, such as Romania, for example. However, for now, reduced sales abroad have provided a respite to local Russian prices, given that domestic wheat prices were the highest for this time of year.

“It is not clear what data American analysts used when they concluded that Russia will have a bad harvest this year,” said Igor Abakumov, an agricultural expert and host of the Selsky Chas channel, to NI . - We do not expect any tragedy. And according to my estimates, we are planning a rich harvest - 120 million tons of grain. We will get the third largest harvest in the modern history of Russia. More was only in 2017 and 2020, when 135.5 and 133.4 million tons were harvested, respectively. This volume will be enough to cover the needs of Russians in grain-based products, the expert noted.

According to Abakumov, Russia is the world's first exporter of wheat. The second is grains in general. Predictions are good when the bins are full, when the grain is sorted, dried and ready for sale. And forecasts are made in advance in order to bring prices down. Traders who export grain are especially interested in this. They want to buy cheaper, sell more.