Posted 26 августа 2021,, 07:22

Published 26 августа 2021,, 07:22

Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:38

Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:38

Dusseldorf Court: Nord Stream 2 may remain without gas

Dusseldorf Court: Nord Stream 2 may remain without gas

26 августа 2021, 07:22
Фото: ria.ru
Bad news came today for Gazprom - a Dusseldorf court in Germany rejected an appeal by Gazprom's subsidiary Nord Stream 2 AG against the Federal Grid Agency's decision, which refused to remove Nord Stream 2 from the EU's third energy package.
Сюжет
Gas

Victoria Pavlova

The essence of these norms is that the gas supplier cannot simultaneously be the sole owner of the pipe. At least half of the pipeline's capacity must be supplied to independent suppliers. Gazprom found itself in an impasse: on the one hand, only its fields are connected to this pipeline, and on the other, only Gazprom has the right to deal with pipeline gas exports. Now the status of a natural monopoly, which previously allowed everyone to dictate their own terms, has come out sideways. So the solemn start of gas pumping through Nord Stream 2, scheduled for November this year, will not be so solemn: it is now finally and irrevocably possible to pump no more than 27.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year through this pipeline instead of the planned 55 billion cubic meters. ...

Although, in fact, Gazprom could not shell out for the lawyers who handled this case in court. It will be very difficult to find gas for the new pipe anyway. Initially, the pipe under the Baltic Sea was conceived as an alternative to transit through Ukraine. Firstly, relations between the countries are tense, and secondly, the gas transportation system of Ukraine is already worn out and requires investment. According to the GTS Operator of Ukraine, it is necessary to spend about $ 1.5 billion in order to put the gas pipeline in order in the next 10 years. But the leadership of Gazprom, headed by Alexei Miller, too recklessly decided that in such a turbulent geopolitical situation, everyone would just sit peacefully and watch the transit valve being shut off to Ukraine.

Most importantly, the United States reached an agreement with Germany, the main consumer of gas from SP2, and convinced the local government to put pressure on Gazprom in case of refusal to transit fuel through Ukraine. But the termination of transit through the "Square" could free up 40 billion cubic meters of gas for "SP2", these are the conditions of the transit contract signed in 2019. 40 billion cubic meters is a very significant volume, this is 73% of the design capacity of the new pipe. And they obviously remain with Ukraine. This means that Alexei Miller will have to find other resources.

There are few options left: a reduction in deliveries along the European line of the Turkish Stream or a reduction in deliveries through the Yamal-Europe system passing through Belarus. Nobody is going to give up Turkish Stream now. This means pouring into the toilet all the work that began before the "Crimean Spring" together with the construction of the "South Stream" in 2012. In addition, fuel supplies to Hungary via the European line of the Turkish Stream are to begin in a month. Together with Serbia, these countries will consume 8.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This is a volume that cannot save Nord Stream 2 in any way. And even if Gazprom blocks the pipeline through Turkey, it will only harm itself. Serbia has already received concessional financing for the construction of a connection between its gas transmission system and the Greek one, which has access to both Azerbaijani gas and an LNG terminal. No one will complicate logistics and pump gas south through north when alternatives are available.

So far, the most likely candidate for the flight is gas passing to Europe through Belarus. The pipeline capacities for the 4th quarter of 2021 and the first 3 quarters of 2022 have not yet been booked. But this is only a temporary measure. It was the cut in supplies via this route that led to an explosive rise in gas prices in Europe to $ 560 per 1,000 cubic meters. The filling of European gas storage facilities has resumed and is proceeding at an accelerated pace. It will not be possible to completely block this route due to the need to support Alexander Lukashenko until he leaves the presidential post. Vladimir Putin promised support to Belarus - he will have to keep the promise. Otherwise, the neighbors will not understand the situation in which transit through Ukraine will continue, and through Belarus will stop. As if allies and opponents had switched places.

So it turns out that there is practically no place in Europe for Nord Stream 2, and you will definitely have to sacrifice something. And one cannot count on an increase in demand: Angela Merkel said that Germany will reach climate neutrality by 2045 and will not need Russian gas at all. Demand in Europe will only fall. And Nord Stream 2 is confidently turning into an exclusively image project, demonstrating to the whole world that Russia can implement infrastructure projects alone under sanctions. But it is no longer of practical use.

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