Scientists have changed the forecast about the end of the Russian pandemic to August
Scientists made the next forecast changes regarding the coronavirus epidemic in Russia. Now they believe that July is too early to complete the pandemic, and offer to focus on August. But this option is not final.
Researchers at Singapore University of Technology and Design are responsible for the latest edition of the forecast. According to their calculations, the outbreak will fade by August 19. Earlier, she predicted the completion of July 20, according to RIA Novosti.
The forecast was updated not only for Russia - in the United States the deadlines for ending the pandemic moved to September 5, in Italy by August 30, in Britain by August 20, and in Germany and France by August 5 and 8. Dates may vary, Singaporean scientists said, depending on the measures taken in each country.
The authors of the model warned that territories that have passed the peak of the epidemic may face another wave if the restrictions are lifted too soon.
The researchers compiled a model on the data on measures taken to counteract COVID-19, the dynamics of the incidence rate, and also the number of infected and recovered.
His forecast was announced earlier by the chief researcher at the Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology. Gamalei Victor Zuev. He argued that with an optimistic development of the situation, the epidemic in the Russian Federation could end in June. But, obviously, the optimistic scenario did not happen.
The Kremlin, in turn, prophesied a recession in the pandemic by mid-May. Such a term was called by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov in an interview with an American magazine.
The forecasts were made by the Ministry of Health experts, declaring that the pandemic could decline in early summer, the former head of the department, Veronika Skvortsova, who predicted a plateau of the incidence rate before May, as well as the official representative of the Information Center for Monitoring the Situation with the Coronavirus Alexander Myasnikov, who “appointed "Peak coronavirus at the end of April. The latter, however, eventually admitted that he was mistaken in his calculations.
Now the country has recorded 93 558 cases of infection with coronavirus. 867 people died, 8 456 patients recovered and were discharged from the hospital. Over the past day, coronavirus was detected in 6,411 patients.