Almost a royal dynasty: the Turkmen dictator passes power to his son Serdar

Gennady Charodeyev

Few people in the republic today doubt that all the formalities of the transfer of power will be observed. The Central Electoral Commission has already announced the start of preparations for early presidential elections. As is customary in the East, on March 12 there will be a big "theatrical performance" with the participation of two or even three contenders "for the throne." The people will unanimously vote for the one who will be appointed the new president.

Although, in announcing his resignation, Berdymukhammedov may be counting on the Turkmens asking him to stay. After all, the president has full power in the country and, according to the Constitution, is not limited in the number of terms.

Sardar is translated from Turkmen as "leader"

“I support the idea that the road to public administration at a new stage in the development of our country should be given to young leaders who have been brought up in a spiritual environment and in accordance with the high requirements of our time. As chairman of the Halk Maslahaty (Upper House of Parliament), I intend to further direct my vast life and political experience to this area,” the head of state said.

As a number of independent experts suggest, the 64-year-old Berdymukhammedov can pull off a trick: keep the post of chairman of the Upper House, allowing himself to be above the fray and at the same time completely control the country.

In Turkmenistan today, it is no secret to anyone, the BBC reported that Arkadag has been actively helping his only son, Serdar, build a political career in recent years.

In February last year, the President signed a decree creating a new post of Deputy Prime Minister of the government of the country to which he appointed his son. Sardar now oversees the introduction of digital and innovative technologies in all areas of production. He often goes on business trips - he visited Germany, China and the USA many times. Recently he visited Iran and Uzbekistan, passing written messages from his father to the leaders of these countries.

According to Turkmen law, the president of the country cannot be younger than 40 years old. Serdar Berdimuhamedov reached this age in September 2021.

During his short political career, the president's son managed to be both the deputy foreign minister and the minister of industry of Turkmenistan, as well as the regional governor of the Akhal velayat surrounding the capital. He is also a member of the Turkmen Security Council.

So far, as far as is known, Berdymukhamedov Jr. has not announced his participation in the upcoming elections.

Former dentist writes books about dogs

President Berdimuhamedov is a former dentist. He is a representative of the Tekin people, one of the largest in the country. In 1997, Garbanguly was appointed Minister of Health of Turkmenistan, and in 2001 he became Deputy Prime Minister. After the death of his predecessor, dictator Saparmurat Niyazov, he headed the funeral commission and later became acting president.

In accordance with the Constitution of Turkmenistan, the chairman of the Mejlis, Ovezgeldy Atayev, was supposed to act, but a criminal case was suddenly initiated against him.

As president, the BBC notes, Berdymukhammedov has behaved rather eccentrically in recent years, in particular, he regularly released music videos for his own compositions. One of these songs was a rap about Rovach, the Akhal-Teke horse presented to the president. By the way, in total in his stable there are about 130 horses of selected breeds, which, according to experts, cost from a million dollars each.

The leader of the country surprised Western leaders unspeakably by publicly demonstrating how accurately he shoots at targets during exercises. Everyone was amused by the president's instructions to organize mandatory cycling and gym classes for officials

The intellectual Berdymukhammedov writes books about politics, the history of tea, dogs, horses and Turkmen cuisine. The electronic library opened by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan contains more than 60 books of the President, many of which have been translated into foreign languages.

The country has not yet officially registered a single case of coronavirus, but, by order of the president, residents are required to wear masks, and only whites. For blacks - a fine of 50 manats (about 2.5 thousand rubles), because blacks in the East are "mourning, but we have a holiday."

At the same time, Turkmenistan remains one of the most closed countries in the world. Human rights activists say that Ashgabat grossly violates human rights, but the authorities categorically deny this.

Where will Turkmen gas flow?

Turkmenistan today ranks fourth after Russia, Iran and Qatar in the world in terms of natural gas reserves - 19.5 trillion cubic meters. cubic meters. This is 10 percent of the world's reserves. Among the deposits of the country is one of the largest in the world - Galkynysh. Its volume is 2.8 trillion. cubic meters. But Turkmenistan has no access to any other sea than the Caspian. This is the biggest obstacle to large-scale exports to the Middle East or Europe.

Currently, more than 90% of Turkmen gas is supplied to China. According to official data, the volume of supplies of blue fuel to China in 2020 exceeded 30 billion cubic meters. Ashgabat sends part of the gas to Azerbaijan through the territory of Iran. In 2017, deliveries in this direction amounted to 1.76 billion cubic meters.

However, Turkmen gas is completely dependent on supplies to China. The authorities of Turkmenistan, realizing the whole disadvantage of this situation, assure the whole world that they have huge gas reserves, and are trying to expand their supplies in various directions. In the south, the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline is being built, and in the west, the construction of a trans-Caspian gas pipeline is being discussed, which should become part of the Southern Corridor.

It is planned that if implemented, the trans-Caspian gas pipeline will supply Europe with 10 to 30 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas per year, and the TAPI gas pipeline - 33 billion cubic meters. But China is preventing the implementation of all projects.

The problems in the country's economy are huge. Suffice it to say that the people in the republic are constantly suffering from a shortage of bread. So, according to Sputnik, residents of the Mary velayat are looking for a replacement for wheat bread: they bake it from sorghum, millet, which is usually used as livestock feed. Due to the shortage of flour, the cost of a loaf becomes unbearable for many families.

And then Alexander Lukashenko said that Turkmenistan would soon join the Union State "because of economic problems." But Berdimuhamedov is not going to "lie under" anyone. They say that he is afraid of losing his family's billions in income.

Political scientist Arkady Dubnov , in an interview with NI, said that, observing the fate of Nazarbayev, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov came to a firm conclusion: power should remain strictly in the Family - no palliative, which Nazarbayev went to make the successor of the non-family Tokayev.

In a word, you have to control everything yourself, while you are in a sober mind and solid memory. After all, in Uzbekistan, Karimov, when he unexpectedly passed away in 2016, no one knew for sure who he saw as his successor. It's good that Mirziyoyev won the intra-elite struggle, but it could have been different. Yes, and Arkadag himself remembers well that only a fortunate combination of circumstances allowed him to take the place of Turkmenbashi, who died untimely in 2006. He didn't leave a will!

According to the expert, one must understand that Berdimuhamedov is an extremely suspicious ruler and mystical circumstances play an important role in his decision-making. He remembers that Turkmenbashi, having announced in 2003 that he had reached the age of the Prophet, lived only three years after that. So Arkadag did not fail to recall this, speaking in parliament: they say that he, too, has already outlived the Prophet, he should turn 65 this year. In a word, it's time to "give way to the young".

And he will be there, dad! Yes, and the grandson of Kerimguly needs to be taught the mind, he will continue the family business, Arkady Dubnov believes.

Andrey Kazantsev, a professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, in an interview with NI noted that the expert community quite admits the version according to which Berdimuhamedov is testing the Turkmen elite and wants to secure the post of president of the country with the help of early elections. Whether this is so, we will find out in March. But personally, I am inclined to believe that the head of the country decided to go into the shadows and put the only son of Serdar in his place.

- In addition to purely economic problems, Turkmenistan has significant difficulties with migration to Turkey. There are about a million Turkmens there today. Turkmenistan is the only country in Central Asia from which mass migration goes not to Russia, but to Turkey. If they return, the current authorities in Ashgabat may have big problems. There is a lot of inter-tribal tension in the country. Suffice it to say that Berdymukhammedov himself is a representative of the Tekin people, and they have very bad relations with other tribes. If these migrants return to their homeland, the country, quite possibly, will face great social upheavals.

Arkadag, the expert noted, is a very rich man. But if someone not from the Family, not from the clan comes to power in the country, everything will be taken away from Berdimuhamedov. After the death of Turkmenbashi, everything was taken away from all his relatives and many of his close associates were executed. Garbanguly knows perfectly well what awaits him if he cedes power. Therefore, he will not give it to anyone, said Kazantsev.