Day X - Monday: Belarus froze in anticipation of the repressions

A second wave of the arrests is quite possible.

Ivan Petrovsky

Lukashenko called on the people to "forgive the police and riot police if they went too far somewhere" during the recent riots in the streets of Minsk. He threatened to temporarily close all the striking factories from Monday, and then figure out who to invite to work there.

Of course, the security forces - the police, the KGB, the prosecutor's office, the investigation - have already received unequivocal instructions to seize and imprison any citizens of the country whom the punishers themselves consider "provocateurs" or "organizers" of protests, strikes and any actions of civil disobedience.

As Belarusian activists write in social networks, the people have only one last Sunday left to perform a miracle. To find a way out of a hopeless situation, from an impending catastrophe. The people are absolutely united, the people are beautiful, but the people are completely unarmed in front of the black evil spirits that are now crawling along the land of Belarus.

Since Monday, Lukashenko has promised to "sort it out the hardest" - there is no doubt that the wolf did not spend this week dancing. His mad dogs were gathered into a single fist, the troops were put on alert. As long as people walked with flowers and sang, everything went on. Open photographing of protesters continued, arrests continued, and hostage-taking continued. Today, another "missing" was found in the forest belt during the performances on August 9-13 - the body of Nikita Kryvtsov was found in the forest, within the capital, near the Minsk ring road... The West is powerless to stop the Rwandan genocide right in the center of Europe. There is no president in the United States. European blotter chewers call for "dialogue on all sides"...

So the protesters and strikers have only one chance - to rely on their own strength. And, in the opinion of the publicist Anatoly Nesmiyan, these forces may not be at all small and not at all defenseless.

“Lukashenko’s decision to start a lockout against the striking enterprises on Monday does not seem reasonable. It suggests itself as an element of terror, but like terror in general, it has risks that cannot be prevented”, - Nesmiyan notes. There are examples of a relatively and even quite successful struggle against the working class in the capitalist economy of modern times. The same Margaret Thatcher crushed the performances of miners, and also air traffic controllers, and Lukashenko may well use this experience. True, the image of a fighter for popular interests will have to be forgotten, but when personal power is at stake, the image is nothing. The lust for power is everything.

But to become a Belarusian Thatcher, Lukashenko must have a state apparatus working like clockwork and a stable position in society. In the meantime, apart from the top of the bureaucracy, which will drown with Lukashenko, if anything, and forced bureaucrats, he does not have a lot of support. There is one more nuance - in Belarus, the class of the so-called "programmers has grown significantly (not in absolute, but in specific terms)"- people who are familiar with the new economy. These people have become the core of the current protests, they know how to network structures, this is their native element.

Perhaps that is why the protests this time look (and indeed are) something completely different than before. This is not the petty urban bourgeoisie - the "kreakly", as they contemptuously call it, this is just the new proletariat selling its labor - but intellectual labor, in contrast to the "old" proletariat. And they have nothing to lose either.

A very curious contradiction arises - mossy leftists-compromisers and collaborators, cosplaying communists “drown” for Lukashenko, but completely ignore the ripened new stratum, which almost completely corresponds to Marxist attitudes towards the hegemonic class. By the way, it is this social group that is growing in number and soon it will be completely impossible not to notice it. It is interesting how the left-wing collaborators will change their shoes. A lockout can lead to the opposite effect - the strike committees will receive a powerful stimulus and impetus in their development and will make a counterproductive decision - they will take "their" enterprises and vice versa - kick out Lukashenko's punishers. And then he will receive two fronts - the street and factories.

A war on two fronts is usually a completely hopeless event. Thatcher, incidentally, fought the miners for over a year. Successfully, but she had to mobilize the capabilities and resources of a country that is far from being the weakest. And the British state apparatus looked quite efficient. Will Lukashenko succeed in repeating what the "iron lady" has done is a very big question. But in any case, the myth of Belarus as an island of socialism will end forever".

“A useful decision for the Belarusian revolution is not to leave a choice even for those who are not ready to join the strikes, to consolidate workers at the striking enterprises”, writes the Telegram channel Serpom Po. And at the same time, to radicalize other enterprises - check the working class solidarity. it is during the beginning of the march to Minsk, to increase the number of its participants.

As for the "lock on the gate", it takes on a lot - it is also a question whether the workers will give their enterprises over to Lukashenko. They will take them, sit on the defensive and hang a castle for Lukashenko and his guardsmen. They use the experience of Polish Solidarity. Try to log in.

Lukashenko left the workers of Belarus no choice. He decided to intimidate them, thereby insult them again. He blew off all the brakes. Now only full speed ahead - a general indefinite strike. Until victory. "

“Alexander Lukashenko has officially declared war on the people of the Republic of Belarus”. Russian politician Leonid Gozman believes. “It is the declaration of war that means his stupid statements about the movement of NATO troops, plans to seize the Grodno region, that“ an alternative president will be brought to the country on NATO bayonets. "From now on, all the protesters - people in the squares, members of the Coordination Council, women in chains of solidarity - are not opposition at all, but agents of the advancing aggressor. And in war, as in war!

So you can use the army. So you can shoot at the crowd. This means that a state of emergency can be declared and all those who appear in the slightest degree can be arrested. And most importantly, you can openly and officially turn to your older brother for help - an attack from the outside.

The Minsk dictator has no internal barriers. He will go to the end, he will shed as much blood as he wants. Maybe he really believes that he is the fate of Belarus, that he is not protecting himself, but the country. But it doesn't matter what happens in his apparently not very healthy head - it is important that, in fact, he gave the signal to attack. It could be put in its place, but this requires concerted actions of Russia and the European Union - zero chances! But it can only be really stopped by the resistance of the people, which, by the way, at some point may give rise to doubts in the ranks of its punishers - both privates and generals. In their minds, it is possible, there is a certain limit of villainy, which they will not go beyond".

So it will be or not - we will find out tomorrow, on Monday. In any case, there is no war without casualties, and it is very unlikely that people who have risen from their knees will leave the streets at the sight of the riot police or army tanks.

In the photo: A cell of the isolation ward is painted on the asphalt - and there are fifty people inside, - exactly so many people were there during the last days in reality. Only additionally the air did not pass there...