Philosopher Vladimir Vasiliev continues to analyze events in Belarus, making a forecast for the near future based on his conclusions.
As reported in the morning of September 1 by the media of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, Maria Kolesnikova, who until now was the head of the election headquarters of V.D. Babariko (chairman of the board of Gazprombank subsidiary bank in Belarus) and one of the main figures of the Presidium of the Opposition Coordination Council, said she was ready to take on the role of opposition leader in Belarus.
Yesterday Maria Kolesnikova and Viktor Babariko announced the creation of a political party called Together by publishing a video message to the city and the world.
To a direct question from a journalist of the newspaper "Kommersant" whether Kolesnikova is ready for the burden of the leader of the opposition in Belarus, she answered: "Yes, I understand that I am becoming this leader".
An important "trifle" - one of the most massive, including on the Internet, mass media of the Russian Federation - the newspaper "Kommersant" is not for the first time interviews with Kolesnikova and publishes it, thereby promoting or, in the slang of political strategists, spinning Kolesnikova into RF and throughout the Russian-speaking space.
The newspaper "Kommersant", like the entire publishing house "Kommersant", had not previously been seen at all in opposition to the Kremlin. On the contrary, the journalists of this newspaper have always been and are being included by the administration of the President of the Russian Federation and the apparatus of the Government of the Russian Federation, respectively, in the presidential and prime minister's "pools of journalists".
And one more "trifle" - the federal and regional state media of the Russian Federation, starting with the "Parlamentskaya Gazeta" and the television offices of the central regions of the Russian Federation (Moscow, the Moscow region and other regions of the Central Federal District), as on command they gave the message today: "Maria Kolesnikova"...
The intention to create a party between Babariko and Kolesnikova was just announced. This party still needs to be created in fact and legally registered, but in Belarus over the past 20 years no one has managed to do this!
But this is not enough for national political leadership. This requires the recognition of the political national leadership of M.A. Kolesnikova on the part of the main political forces of Belarus, which does not yet exist (there is nothing to recognize), and it is not at all a fact that this recognition will be received: in any case, this is not a matter of yesterday or even tomorrow, but future months.
However, despite all this, the Russian state media, as if on command (or maybe just on command), suddenly gave a universal trumpet voice in agreement about the planned nationwide political leadership of Maria Kolesnikova as a fact that politically had already taken place in the political heaven of the promised!
So who is Maria Alekseevna Kolesnikova? Born on April 24, 1982, she was educated first at the Minsk State Academy of Music (flute, conducting), and then at the Higher School of Music in Stuttgart (FRG).
At first she organized international cultural (musical) projects in Germany and Belarus ("music for adults"), and then became the head of the "international project to promote Belarusian culture in the world".
So one of the “sponsors” of this “international project” of Kolesnikova in Belarus was V.D. Babariko (“naturally”, “sponsor” at the expense of Gazprombank's subsidiary bank in Minsk - BelGazprombank).
Today the former Minister of Culture of Belarus , member of the Presidium of the Coordinating Council of the Opposition Pavel Latushko, in an interview for the Belarusian media Novosti.TUT.BY, announced the initiative to create a political party headed by Kolesnikova: “This has become news to me”.
According to Latushko, at the meetings of the Presidium of the Coordination Council of the Opposition (CC), he repeatedly raised the issue that the CC should receive not only public, but also legal status, becoming a "social movement" (organization) as a legal entity under Belarusian legislation. He proposed to implement this idea publicly even before he became a member of the Constitutional Court, and, having entered it, he proposed already together with lawyer Lilia Vlasova, who is also a member of the Presidium of the Constitutional Court.
Latushko also stressed in this interview: “Yesterday I publicly spoke at a press conference about the importance of transforming the Constitutional Court into a public movement with a legal status.
Late yesterday evening after the meeting of the Constitutional Court, Viktor Babariko's headquarters voiced a kind of modified initiative - to create a political party.
Well, this is a political process. Political parties and political pluralism are important for the functioning of the political system of the state. In fact, a new situation is developing, taking into account the new initiative of some of the members of the CC Presidium...
Did I know about such an initiative of some of the members of the CC Presidium? No, I didn't...
In fact, a new political situation is being created, which, from the point of view of logic, has a right and a place to be".
To the question " if Babariko's headquarters will offer you to participate in their party , what will be your decision?" Latushko replied: “I have no such plans. ... At the same time, I have plans for the future, which at the moment require additional detailed study. I will voice them later".
It seems that these political statements of Babariko and Kolesnikova, on the one hand, and Latushko, on the other, as well as the actions corresponding to these statements in the ranks of the bourgeois opposition of Belarus, marked a split.
If this is really so, then these public statements and actions have shown that so far all this opposition, symbolized by its Coordination Council, has been a "general bourgeois democratic" opposition, in the first place.
Within this opposition, until now, the special interests of various groupings (subclasses) of the internal bourgeoisie of Belarus, inextricably linked with related subclasses of the bourgeoisie in other European states, including the Russian Federation, and the world (primarily in the USA), have been represented, and secondly.
And, finally, thirdly, in this case, if it takes place in reality, this is the first public manifestation of the initial process of political structuring of this "all-bourgeois democratic" opposition.
What is the reason for this process of political structuring of the “all-bourgeois democratic” opposition of Belarus?
This process is due to differences in class interests, ideological and political (internal and external) orientations of the corresponding groupings of the bourgeoisie inside Belarus, each of which completes its formation as a special subclass of the bourgeoisie for itself, on the one hand.
On the other hand, this same process is due to the entry of the Troubles in Belarus into the culmination phase, namely, the phase of the struggle between these subclasses of the internal and external bourgeoisie for the private appropriation of state power over Belarus.
According to the online newspaper Nastoyaschie Vremya, the administrations of the regions of Belarus began to remove from their websites all information about the past presidential elections in Belarus: “We are not sure that Lukashenko will retain power”.
If this is really so, and if it has already assumed a mass (widespread) character, then these are just the essential signs of the Time of Troubles in Belarus entering its culmination phase.
By the way, Pavel Latushko's associate, a member of the Constitutional Court presidium, Lilia Vlasova, was arrested for opposition activities in organizing protests, while Maria Kolesnikova, a confidant of the chairman of the board of BelGazprombank, Viktor Babariko, who has long been acting and represented as the actual leader of the Constitutional Court, has not been arrested.
This “trifle” may also indicate which subclasses of the bourgeoisie of Belarus are completing their formation, with which specific external and internal political and ideological orientation each of them (Kolesnikova and Vlasova), as well as the opposition groups associated with them, represent.
And what about Svetlana Tikhanovskaya?
Tikhanovskaya, who is in Lithuania, also reacted to the initiative of Babariko-Kolesnikova, stating that “in a free democratic country everyone has the right to do so” https://newizv.ru/news/world/01-09-2020/svetlana-tihanovskaya-ne- soglasilas-s-pervostepennostyu-konstitutsionnoy-reformy
However, Tikhanovskaya did not agree with many other things that were voiced in the video message of Kolesnikova and Babariko about the creation of a party and the implementation of constitutional reform.
But with what, first of all, did Tikhanovskaya and the political forces behind her disagree?
First of all, they disagree with the alleged public statements of Babariko and Kolesnikova that "the opposition lost this election".
Tikhanovskaya again publicly declared to “hail and peace”: “Everyone knows that this is not so. We won, but they are trying to steal our victory".
The political coalition represented by Tikhanovskaya, in contrast to the proposals of Babariko - Kolesnikova, does not consider it a primary task to amend the Constitution (by the way, this proposal of Babariko - Kolesnikov is essentially identical to the latest initiatives of Lukashenko!).
“There is no need to replace the political agenda by moving on to discussing constitutional reform. I urge you to hear what the people say. First - the demands of citizens, then - reforms, which are possible only after fair elections”, - said Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
According to this statement by Tikhanovskaya, the main task is the peaceful transfer of power and the holding of new elections.
And to whom to transfer state power over Belarus? Really the Opposition Coordination Council?
Not at all - this Coordination Council was created and operates "by proxy" from Tikhanovskaya, that is, on behalf of Tikhanovskaya, instead of Tikhanovskaya and in the interest of Tikhanovskaya.
In essence, Tikhanovskaya reiterated the demand to transfer state power to her - Tikhanovskaya, for "we won, but they are trying to steal our victory".
The day before yesterday, after the statement of the President of the Russian Federation, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya said: “In Belarus, the peaceful protest of the population continues against the regime that is trying to steal votes and usurp power. We demand that all countries of the world respect the sovereignty of our country".
And this demand to respect the sovereignty of Belarus in full and, first of all, presumably, belongs to the political coalition behind Tikhanovskaya, to the recognition that in the just past presidential elections in Belarus these political forces “won, but they are trying to steal our victory”.
The picture will not be complete if one does not remember that the leaders of the two strike committees of the largest Belarusian factories, who were members of the Opposition Coordination Council, are under administrative arrest.
Presumably, this also partially blocked the organizational work of the Coordination Council among the proletariat of Belarus to unite strike committees on a national scale under the banners and under the leadership of that part of the Coordination Council (= internal and external bourgeoisie), which is personified not so much by Pavel Latushko and Lilia Vlasova, how much Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.
The leaders of such "strike committees" is essentially a "new aristocracy of labor" bourgeois ideology, in captivity which are representatives of the "new aristocracy of labor," is very significant is the leader of the "strike committee" Minsk traktorgogo plant, a member of the Bureau of COP opposition Sergey Dylevsky:
“I am against injustice, against the fact that laws only work in one direction . Our laws ideally protect those close to the authorities, and in no way protect ordinary people . I am against this, I am not an oppositionist, I have no political convictions, I am not a communist, not a liberal, not a democrat , but as an ordinary person I do not like what the authorities do to me. I don’t like constant repression, I don’t like the fact that I cannot calmly go out into the streets of the city”.
And they do not yet have other "proletarian leaders" to whom this part of the internal and external bourgeoisie could entrust the mobilization of the proletariat of Belarus under their banners.
Judging by previous statements, Kolesnikova is not involved in "coordinating strike committees". Moreover, it shows quite clearly that the mobilization of the proletariat and its involvement in the national political struggle against the state power existing in Belarus, to put it mildly, from the point of view of the interests of the political forces it represents, is not politically expedient.
In other words, on the part of the current struggle for the private appropriation of state power over Belarus, the external and internal political forces represented by Kolesnikova are being implemented and, most likely, in the foreseeable future, the strategy of political neutralization of the proletariat of Belarus will be implemented.
But on the part of their main political competitors, represented by Tikhanovskaya, it is being realized and as the conflict between these two parts (= parties) of the bourgeoisie intensifies, the implementation of the strategy to mobilize the proletariat under its political banners will be accelerated.
If someone plans Babariko or Kolesnikov as a “new daddy” for that part of the “reactionary lower classes” of Belarus, which longs to find a “new daddy” instead of the “old” one (Lukashenko), then the effect of the implementation of such plans will most likely be opposite to that of which count.
Neither Babariko, let alone Kolesnikov, are obviously not drawn from the word at all to the "new father" . An attempt to install one of them as a “new daddy” would rather push the corresponding “reactionary lower classes” of Belarus into supporters of the political rivals of such a “new daddy” than leave them simply politically neutral.
This will definitely not end the troubles in Belarus, but will only lead it to a new - even more fierce - turn of the spiral...
Instead of an afterword:
On September 1, 2020, Lukashenko at the Baranovichi State Vocational and Technical College of the Service Industry stated the following:
“In my message before the elections, I said: today you call us partners. They did not become brothers, but partners. But in vain! This was heard both in the Kremlin and everywhere. We are brothers today . But why expect someone to hustle us in the West, so that we become brothers again?...
President [Putin] and I have already drawn these conclusions . And no matter what they say among you, no matter what blathers in our squares, we will preserve our common Fatherland , where two peoples live from the same root. This is the Fatherland from Brest to Vladivostok".
As reported today by the near-Kremlin mass media of the Russian Federation, in the first half of September, negotiations between Lukashenko and Putin will take place in Moscow.
Presumably, these talks will focus on practical steps to accelerate the implementation of the “geopolitical project” of political reconstruction (after all, we are talking about a project of historical revenge in relation to the “greatest hepolitical catastrophe of the 20th century”) “common Fatherland from Brest to Vladivostok".
The practical constitution of this "common Fatherland from Brest to Vladivostok" will inevitably give the Troubles in Belarus an open all-Russian character - most likely, there will be an effect of "political resonance" (mutual multiple reinforcement) of the Troubles unfolding in these two parts of Russia.