Economist Dmitry Milin pondered over an important international problem: what will happen in the world if America ceases (and everything is moving towards this) to play its role of "world gendarme"? The reason for this was an article by the State Secretary of the Ministry of International Cooperation of the Federal Republic of Germany Martin Jaeger "Germany must be capable of intervention", published in the influential German newspaper "Frankfurter Allgemeine".
The official believes that the era of American interventions is coming to an end, but it is not worth hoping, as many do in Berlin, that the Bundeswehr (German Defense Ministry) will now perform only the functions of the country's defense. It would be a mistake altogether.
G͟e͟r͟m͟a͟n͟i͟ya͟ ͟i͟ ͟E͟S͟, ͟ ͟n͟a͟o͟b͟o͟r͟o͟t͟, ͟ ͟d͟o͟l͟zh͟n͟y͟ ͟b͟y͟t͟͟ ͟g͟o͟t͟o͟v͟y͟ ͟k͟ ͟b͟o͟l͟e͟e͟ ͟a͟k͟t͟i͟v͟n͟o͟m͟u͟ ͟v͟m͟e͟sh͟a͟t͟e͟l͟͟s͟t͟v͟u͟ ͟v͟ ͟k͟o͟n͟f͟l͟i͟k͟ty͟ ͟z͟a͟ ͟r͟u͟b͟e͟zh͟o͟m͟, ͟ ͟p͟r͟i͟ch͟e͟m͟ ͟s͟a͟m͟o͟s͟t͟o͟ya͟t͟e͟l͟͟n͟o͟, ͟ ͟b͟e͟z͟ ͟p͟o͟m͟o͟sch͟i͟ ͟S͟SH͟A͟.
“The United States, at best, will continue to hold its nuclear umbrella over NATO, but the Americans will no longer guard the European flanks in the south and in the Mediterranean. This task is transferred to the Europeans. In the immediate and more distant neighborhoods of Europe, order must prevail, and this order must be European".
Jaeger also explains why Germany, together with France and other EU countries, needs to intervene in foreign conflicts - not necessarily by military means, but also by them: "To maintain international peace and security, to protect partner countries and our trade routes".
“In principle, there is nothing particularly new in Jaeger's article - this topic has been regularly discussed in Berlin for the past few years. But there are two interesting points here. First, the fact that the Ministry of International Cooperation intervened in the discussion about the need to use military force as a foreign policy instrument. And secondly, the specific proposals made by the author about where to start: the Bundestag should henceforth approve the use of the Bundeswehr in military operations under the EU mandate; Bundeswehr instructors who train foreign military personnel on the spot should be able to accompany their charges in battle; if necessary, Germany should supply its partners, such as Ukraine, ATGM "Milan" for self-defense..."
In this regard, the analyst suggests looking into the near future:
“Let's imagine that the United States, against the background of social and racial unrest“, closes down”, “leaves to deal with internal problems”, turning into a “city on a hill”. Military bases around the world are being closed (except for the island of Diego Garcia for long-range bomber aviation - just in case), half of the aircraft carriers (those that will be older) are cut into metal. Those. stop playing the thankless role of "world policeman".
Europe without American supervision and military bases left over from the times of the occupation of Germany and the "cold won" create a European army, mainly, of course, Franco-German-Polish. With the armed neutrality of Switzerland and England, trying with all their strength to hold on to the "former colony".
China is becoming the sole military and economic leader of Southeast Asia, which theoretically could be opposed by an order of magnitude weaker armies of South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, but they are incapable of forming a military alliance or even more or less serious resistance from the PLA without American support.
The Indo-Pakistani War has begun. Not nuclear at first.
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has entered a hot phase... not yet nuclear.
The Muslim brothers in Egypt look askance at Israel, which did carry out nuclear tests, just in case, so that no one doubts. Libya and Syria in a civil war.
Argentina and Brazil are on the verge of a war (at first not nuclear), the Chilean military is looking at the neighboring countries with a predatory view. But Colombia and Venezuela live in peace and harmony. They need to earn money on cocaine, which has fallen in price and is now being transported by dry cargo ships all over the world, except for the United States (those few of the most modern aircraft carriers still have and they are sinking these "coke carriers" going to them right into the sea). Mexico.... What about Mexico? Nothing is known about Mexico. The only journalist who returned from there for the ransom was sent by the "warring drug cartels" in two suitcases "dismembered".
Africa. About Africa south of the Sahara, too, nothing is known, except for the total "somalization" of the continent. Only blood flows plentifully from the continent, forests are burning (this was seen from the ISS), and tankers (and in general any ships) no longer go near Africa.
Yes, if anyone believes that the Russian Federation with its less than 2% of world GDP can replace the United States, I advise you to go to a psychiatrist, or go to work at a military plant for 25-30 thousand per month, and it is better in two out of 3 shifts. And think about how we can fight back the next time (not if, but when !!!) the European army attacks us..."