Against the background of the winter recession of the protest wave in Belarus, predictions appear in the media and social networks for next spring, when the protests should resume with renewed vigor. So, the popular Telegram channel "Nezygar" reports:
“In the government circles in Minsk they say that Lukashenko will leave the presidency in the spring. Against this background, the Western party will clearly try to seize the initiative. "They will try to increase the number of their supporters among the deputies and seize the most important posts in the government"..."
Political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov shares his assumptions on this matter:
Babich can return to Belarus as a special representative or even as ambassador again. Such is the bad news for Lukashenko, especially since the main recommendation (almost a requirement) in this case will be the desire to remove the current president of the republic as soon as possible.
Mikhail Babich is known as a super-tough administrator. If it is decided to form expansion in the Belarusian direction, then the Belarusian elite is written to come to terms with the style of behavior of Babich, who feels and behaves in the republic like the head of the Western Federal District. And this mandate lies not in forcing the unification of Russia and Belarus, but in the fact that the Russian state-owned companies finally wanted to unite the Belarusian profitable business, which is competitive in the world market. Moscow will pursue the same line, and if Babich had misunderstood something in the Kremlin's parting words, he would not have been initially put in this direction.
It only remains to add that Lukashenko decided to stay in office forever, like the memorable Salvador Allende, with a gun and a bulletproof vest. From his point of view, both the United States and the Russian Federation are enemies for Belarus, since some want to merge the national economy of the EU, while others want to seize it with their own state corporations. In addition, Lukashenko himself does not really trust Putin and Biden in terms of his personal guarantees, even keeping in mind the precedent with Yanukovych. The third way seems much more attractive - to come to an agreement with China again, and that will press on Moscow and agree with Washington to slow down for another couple of years. But Beijing, too, is not happy with Lukashenko, he has already thrown them once, and the Chinese do not forgive this, but they can play all this. Against the background of this uncertainty, there is a high risk of an increase in street protests after the New Year holidays, as they will be fueled by each of the parties that wants to put pressure on Lukashenko. Something similar happened at one time on the Kiev Maidan, which was prepared by numerous groups of influence wishing to influence Yanukovych and his two-vector policy..."
America also does not stand aside. As you know, on December 22, the US Senate approved the draft law “On sovereignty, human rights and democracy in Belarus” (Belarus Democracy, Human Rights, and Sovereignty Act). This document provides additional powers to the US President to impose sanctions in connection with the 2020 elections in Belarus and subsequent events.
First, the act officially states that Lukashenko is not “the legally elected leader of Belarus”.
Second, the United States recognizes the Coordination Council as the legal body empowered to negotiate a peaceful transfer of power.
The United States supports all the demands of the people of Belarus to hold new elections, release all political prisoners, as well as observe all basic human rights (freedom of speech, belief, religion).
The US President receives personal authority (without the need for Congress approval) to impose sanctions against representatives of the Lukashenko regime.
The United States pledges to provide assistance to civil society in Belarus, independent media and representatives of the IT sector, who contribute to the dissemination of truthful information and the strengthening of human rights.
An investigation will be carried out, which will assess the foreign assets of Alexander Lukashenko and his entourage (with a view to their further arrest).
The Act contains a number of other, no less interesting measures that will contribute to the struggle of the Belarusian people for freedom and strengthening the sovereignty of Belarus (for example, helping Belarusians bypass Internet censorship and ensuring the safety of expressing their opinions).