Raw materials curse: the ruble was falling, is falling and will continue to fall...
30 September , 16:47
Even if the country's monetary authorities stop the current crisis and roll the ruble back a little, this will not last long.

The ruble has become the weakest currency in September among the currencies of developing countries, experts say.

And they joke: “according to the new exchange rate, one British penny is now equal to one ruble. It has become very easy to calculate how many times British pence live better than Russian pence.."

Experts in social networks are vying with each other on what is the reason for the next rapid fall of the Russian currency and what are its prospects. Thus, the well-known economist Yakov Mirkin writes:

“When does the ruble fall?

a) Falling oil prices. This is not

b) External financial shock. This is not

c) Following the currencies of the "emerging markets". First of all, Brazilian real, Turkish lira, Argentine peso. The ruble is in the same basket of dogs.

d) Growth of country risks (whatever)

Who is interested?

a) non-residents, carry traders (from currency to ruble for high profitability, from ruble to currency to fix the profit). A lot of them

b) the state. In the report on the execution of the federal budget, its deficit is 1.7 trillion rubles, in the sources of coverage - 2.5 trillion rubles, the exchange rate difference from the weakening of the ruble. If the state keeps its funds in foreign currency...

c) commodity companies, exporters. Oil and gas prices fell by 40% compared to 2019. Revenue in foreign currency is less. A weak ruble allows to maintain the size of the ruble proceeds. Companies' expenses in rubles are not growing so fast. And - they still remain profitable. A weak ruble is a salvation for such companies

d) ourselves, when we leave rubles for currency. There are a lot of us.

The ruble is a ball, it is pushed from all sides.

But the longest trend is invariably one. So far we have a resource-based, one-sided economy, the Latin American model - the ruble will fall, then quickly, then slowly, then with a rebound - but fall.

The usual scenario is an explosive devaluation, then a rebound, another weakening, another rebound.

60 - 65% for the fact that we can see the ruble again at 72 - 74 rubles. for the dollar. Like a traditional script. If again, of course, some "black swans" do not fall on our poor heads and the second wave of the pandemic does not turn out to be quite cast iron.

When you hit, don't fuss, relax and be glad that there is always much worse.

The day will be better. We live, moving our paws..."

***

Analyst Andrei Nalgin also does not see anything unexpected in what is happening and believes that the authorities will soon somewhat correct the situation, albeit, of course, temporarily:

“Here it is - the magic of round numbers. Since June, the ruble has been moving down without stopping. Without a fight, he lost the 70 rubles / dollar mark, which everyone expected, in general: then the Russian currency seemed overvalued anyway. And then he whistled and whistled over the figure in a week or two: 72 - 73 - 75 - 76 - 78 - 79 - no one paid much attention to this. But here on the monitors the figure 80 flashed for a second - and on those! The whole feed, all the media, all the telegram channels in the posts about the devaluation , and friends are overwhelmed with calls "buy or sell?"

Nothing unexpected happens, though.

And only ordinary people would be worried. The Russian authorities also got involved . They took the ready-made recipes of 2014 as a basis and decided to use the foreign exchange reserves of the largest state corporations to support the ruble.

Reportedly, three state-owned companies - Gazprom, Rosneft and Alrosa - have received an updated directive from the government on the size of foreign currency assets. We are talking about a document that sets a limit on the amount of currency that firms with state participation in capital can keep in their accounts. This mechanism was already used during the currency crisis 6 years ago: then state exporters were instructed to get rid of "extra" dollars and euros in three months and return reserves to the October 2014 level.

Subsequently, the directive was relaxed, however, on September 1, 2020, the government updated the document (No. 8036p-P13). In particular, Alrosa was instructed to ensure “bringing the amount of net foreign exchange assets to a level not higher than as of October 1, 2018”.

According to the Central Bank, as of September 1, Russian corporations held $ 145.5 billion in foreign currency accounts, which is more than the government has in the National Wealth Fund, whose liquid assets are estimated at $ 120 billion . Since July, amid the fall of the ruble, corporations have been increasing their reserves of foreign currency, replenishing accounts by $ 3.9 billion.

Which, in general, is not much, so the current collapse was not provoked by them.

Well, the Central Bank will also start selling currency from October 1. Little by little.

But on the whole, his actions refute the statements of the management that the Bank of Russia does not have specific benchmarks for the exchange rate. Judging by the rustle that has begun, it does. And this reduces the credibility of him.

Nevertheless, the monetary authorities will probably be able to stop the current local crisis. And roll the ruble back a little. But for how long?"

***

And experts of the Proeconomics channel found positive aspects in the devaluation of the ruble - an increase in taxes from the oil industry:

“Will oil companies be able to“ pull out ”the Russian budget at low prices for hydrocarbons, as before? Under certain circumstances, yes. What these circumstances are, is stated in the study of economists and oilmen Filimonova, Eder, Larionov and Komarova from Moscow State Technical University and the Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (“Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice, No. 12, 2018).

To begin with, there are statistics showing the importance of the oil industry for the federal budget: “In 2017, the share of oil and gas revenues amounted to 40% of the total federal budget revenues. In some years, the share of oil and gas revenues exceeded 50%, and for example, in 2016 it decreased to 36%. These changes are primarily due to the volatility of world oil prices and the exchange rate of the national currency".

Now about the reserves for tax collection from oil companies. Thus, as of 2017, Russneft and Slavneft are characterized by the highest tax burden for the industry - 52% and 50%, respectively. The industry average is 38%. At the same time, the lowest indicators throughout the entire period were observed in LUKOIL - 15% in 2017. only one end of the privileged position of LUKOIL is capable of additionally giving hundreds of billions of rubles a year (in 2017, the company paid taxes for 1.2 trillion rubles). The company increased its tax payments for 2011–2017. only 42 billion rubles. For comparison: during the same period, the total tax payments of Rosneft increased by 1.3 trillion. rubles, from Gazpromneft - by 183 billion.

As a contrast for all other companies, these are requisitions (you can't find another word) from Surgutneftegaz: “Until 2016, Surgutneftegaz had the highest tax burden. Once the tax burden for him even exceeded 100% in 2014 and amounted to 109%”.

Strange as it may seem, but in recent years, on average, the tax burden on oil workers has been decreasing: “The assessment of the tax burden of companies made it possible to establish that in the last decade in the oil industry there has been a downward trend in the total tax burden of the industry from 45% in 2011 to 38% 2017".

Finally, the devaluation of the ruble is the main contributor to the increase in taxes on oil workers:

“The following had a positive impact on the growth of tax payments in the oil industry:

- the increase in the dollar exchange rate against the Russian currency, which is due to the implementation of the main trading operations with hydrocarbons in dollars, the indicator is also included in the formulas of oil and gas taxes (contribution to the increase in the tax burden of industry companies - 31%);

- increase in the base rate of MET by the state by means of direct influence on deductions (contribution to the increase in the tax burden of companies in the industry - 20%);

- an increase in the supply of oil for export and the volume of oil production - only 5 and 1%, respectively"...."