“We didn’t manage to seize power unceremoniously, so the situation was transferred to some kind of long-term regime. But in this long-term mode, everything can die.
All this can turn sour and everyone understands this very well. I mean the organizers.
Therefore, in order for it not to turn sour, some explosive provocations are needed and so on.
But now it does not work out to pull Lukashenka into some kind of mass carnage, so that one hundred people die at once. Does not work. The degree of control over the situation by the authorities is much higher.
And so, after all, the only way to stimulate these street protests is to shed blood.
The more blood and victims there are, the, unfortunately, the better for them. They are terribly afraid that they will no longer be paid attention to.
But you need to understand this: the bulk of people are just the meat of this protest for them. And most importantly, they will be donated.
The organizers, the main elite of the activists - they perfectly understand what it is. For them, these people are just consumables.
And they would very much like these people to be beaten, imprisoned and so on.
They are needed for this.
Whether they understand it or not, this is another question.
... We are waiting for November 5 (the day of the end of the fifth term of Lukashenka's rule - note "NI"), when the European Union will recall all ambassadors and completely switch to relations with Tikhanovskaya. It will be very interesting, it's still a circus.
This, in principle, suits us, it is easier for us to build relations with Minsk and Alexander Grigorievich.
Well, the circus with Tikhanovskaya is unlikely to end with something positive for her.
I draw a conclusion from the circus with Guaidó. Because Guaidó had much more resources and reasons to pump rights. He really raised half of the country and what he did there is really no comparison, not even close, does not go with Belarus.
The USA, Canada, all their NATO allies, the European Union have recognized Guaido. And no sense, at least for now. And since then quite a lot of time has passed and they somehow do not practically remember them.
Pompeo even said something like, how many there are these "pedros", there these Guaidos like uncut dogs, one more Guaidos, one less.
I think that if some kind of force majeure does not happen, then Tikhanovskaya, unfortunately for her, will have about the same fate.
Well, they scold her, kick around, understand that it doesn't work out - Lukashenka does not leave, some provocations do not work, well, that's all.
It is interesting that the European Union is driving itself into a rather stupid situation.
Look, Lukashenka is clearly not going to leave. The first, and the toughest round of this fight, he, in general, won. Yes, I won with the help of Russia, but Russia is also not going to refuse to help Lukashenka yet, not because we love him very much, but because on the other side we see no one at all with whom we could have a more or less sane conversation ...
He took office. And what is the European Union hoping for? That something stunning will happen there and Lukashenka will fly out of there like a pipe? So far I do not see, to be honest, a scenario that could develop this way.
He hopes that something will change in Moscow and we will stop supporting Lukashenka so much that we will leave him to his fate, after everything that has happened - I don’t see such a scenario in the near future either.
And then what? Complete isolation of relations between the European Union and Belarus? Will this harm Lukashenka? I don't know, I'm not sure. Will this harm Russia? It will definitely not work.
It seems to me that they there, in Brussels, played a little with their "values". They completely forgot about real politics.
They want to inform everyone that, they say, we have such "values" - although these "values" are also a little washed out - and for their sake we will not retreat anywhere. Well, that's fine, and very good.
In this situation, the European Union finds itself in some stupid position, which, for example, plays into our hands. Such fools are easier, in principle, to deceive, by and large.
Well, what: you don't want to have a relationship with Belarus? Very well. And we will. And we will build them in the way that suits us. And Lukashenka's room for maneuver has decreased, thanks to your stupidity".