Stepan Demura began the interview with the prospect of tougher sanctions against Russia in connection with the arrival of the new US administration. According to him, no one will stop the sanctioned skating rink against Russia. Moscow will have to pay for its unsupported geopolitical ambitions.
But if until now the sanctions were mainly aimed at those sectors of the Russian economy that we do not have (these are sectors of the economy with high added value), then in the coming year, it is likely that tough measures will be introduced against the oil and gas complex and the banking sector of Russia. which we have.
According to Rosstat, the fall in profits of Russian corporations year-on-year at the end of 2020 is 43 percent. If you do not generate added value, do not generate profit, how will you pay salaries to employees? Tough sanctions will further reduce the profits of Russian companies, and this will be followed by a deeper fall in household income. Plus, in 2021, the ruble will weaken further. This will lead to a very significant increase in prices, which again will hit the welfare of Russian citizens.
At the same time, Demura is sure that the ruble can strengthen for a month or a month and a half, then the dollar will turn around. He is now experiencing his "annual death". There is such a ritual called the “annual cycle”. The dollar always falls in December - early January. In the interval from January 15 to March 15, there will certainly be a reversal towards the strengthening of this currency. And its growth means problems with dollar liquidity in the global financial system. A flight from risky assets will begin, including from Russian government bonds. Accordingly, the ruble will fall. But at the beginning of the year, the Russian currency will continue to strengthen, and by the end of the year it will drop to 97 rubles per dollar.
In general, Demura is sure that the probability of a global crisis in 2021 is 100 percent. In pre-default condition loans for real estate in the United States - commercial and residential, as well as student loans. There is a huge credit overhang in China. He has already surpassed Europe in this regard. The official debt of Chinese companies is $ 50 trillion. Moreover, in the so-called gray credit system of China there are 30-40 trillion dollars of debt. Up to half of this debt is bad debt that has already defaulted.
Attempts to introduce digital money are a consequence of accumulated debt.
The digital yuan, like the digital dollar or euro, is not what they imagine. This is done to provide a basic income for the population. The whole point of introducing digital currencies is to overcome the paralysis of the banking system. With a paralyzed banking system, all lending mechanisms stop. This is what we are seeing now. For ordinary citizens, the paralysis of banks means the impossibility of expanded consumption. This means that the state needs to provide you with some kind of fixed amount that would fall into your bank account every month. The state becomes the only source of income for such people. But in exchange, you lose your freedom. The social rating system that has been implemented in China already allows this to be done. It knocks out all those who disagree from the system. This is the program that the international economic forum has already announced...
Initially, the distribution of money will somehow keep the economy afloat. States will try to generate consumer demand. But value added is not generated in the economy. Growth is ensured only by increasing the tax burden on the state. But debt needs to be serviced. This will further accelerate the currency race downward. It's one thing when you have the highest currency - the dollar. Quite different - when the ruble or the yuan. Well, you printed rubles, distributed to everyone. But basically everything will be imported. This will put additional pressure on the ruble. A debt snowball is formed, which rushes down until it breaks against the rocks.
Oil this year will begin to drop in price very sharply. When consumers around the world don't have the money for even basic necessities, the demand for gasoline and something made of plastic will surely collapse.
Globalization is over. Stepan Demura here agrees with Trump: the end of the globalists. Corporations have a lot of self-image. Especially Google, Facebook. Now states will dismember and destroy them. And the matter will not be limited to this, and there will even be criminal prosecutions of the heads, shareholders and main owners of the largest American IT corporations.
The Trump cause lives on and will live on whether he remains president or not. Now a similar political movement is starting in Europe. It is bashfully called populism; in fact, it is healthy nationalism. Liberal nationalism - less state influence, more freedom for individuals and corporations. The self-destruction of the European economy and banking system, which we are now seeing, will lead to an increase in this movement. The appetites of the globalist elite have become too great, the rest gets too little from the pie of the world economy, and redistribution will inevitably begin. Trump just symbolizes it. As for whether he will remain in politics, he never left it. The fate of the US presidency, as I said at the very beginning, has not yet been decided. Trump has nothing to jail, but Biden can be shut down for a long time.