Analysts of the Expert RA rating agency published a report on the financial health of Russian banks. The conclusions turned out to be disappointing: over the next few months, dozens of credit institutions may stop working due to the revocation of licenses.
“The value of the index at the level of 90.7% as of 01.07.2020 means that up to 36 credit institutions on the horizon of the next four quarters are in a high-risk zone”, - TASS quotes research materials.
According to RBC, the calculations of Expert RA included 387 banks, which disclose reports on the regulator's website. 9.3% of them may lose their licenses. The names of the organizations under threat were not disclosed in the report.
According to experts, one of the main reasons for the trouble in the banking sector was the coronavirus pandemic: amid restrictive measures, some organizations were unable to restructure their work. And this by the end of the year may accelerate the pace of license revocation.
Analysts believe that the process of revoking licenses in Russia in the coming months will go not only at the initiative of the Central Bank, but also at the request of shareholders of credit institutions. For the latter, this may be a reaction to ineffective models of banks' operation, which require more and more capital investments from the owners.
“Against the backdrop of the pandemic, the Central Bank suspended field inspections of banks and did not apply extreme measures to them - so in the first half of the year only four companies lost their licenses. However, in July, the supervisory activity of the Central Bank was restored", - notes radiostation Ekho Moskvy.
After the "coronavirus" pause in July, the Central Bank revoked three banks at once, and four more organizations closed voluntarily.
Experts are convinced that following the revocation of licenses from the least stable market participants, the banking health index in the country by the end of 2020 may increase.