On the one hand, this is the confirmation of the fact that parents are already got used to the "free" 10 thousand rubles received in July and June, and on the other hand, of the situation of unemployment and loss of income caused by coronavirus and rising prices.
The second payment, the July one, which Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on the eve of the Constitutional Amendment Day, went smoothly: it was paid automatically, that is, on the basis of the first first payment and very quickly.
July has just begun, and social networks have begun to vigorously discuss the topic of the third payment - the “August”, which no one has ever promised anyone...
As in the time of the guitarist-songwriter Vladimir Vysotsky, “toothless old women spread rumors”, but now the same thing is going on via the Internet, and not about that “garlic will rise in price”, but that the new Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, allegedly, already signed and approved something there about the third, “August”, payment to the families with children under 16 years old, 10 thousand rubles for each.
It comes to the ridiculous: someone, allegedly, already even saw this message of Mishustin on TV, etc.
“NI” decided to find out how such a payment is NOT vertical in the next month, what caused such expectations, how many people need additional help from the state, and, finally, how much it is justified and appropriate for our society from an economic point of view.
It is clear that categorical assistance (as economists call payments similar to payments in June and July - approx. The author of the article) in the amount of 10,000 rubles per child is primarily needed, and not only during the crisis period, by parents with children. Large families in the list of needy are the first of the first.
That is why we turned to the regional "Committee of Large Families" of the Saratov Region with a request to interview parents with 3 children or more with the question: "Do they expect such a payment in August or do not even think about it and do not dream about it?", And Here's the answer:
- These payments are in principle necessary for families, especially where there are several children. Now the situation is complicated due to coronavirus infection, many have lost their jobs. And getting onto the stock exchange, as it sometimes turns out from appeals, is not easy. First of all, of course, jobs and decent salaries are needed. After all, these two components in the Saratov region are simply not there. Previously, many went to Moscow to earn money, but again, back to coronavirus infection, because of it it became practically impossible. Therefore, support should be extended at least until September, to help bring children to school...
We talked with two dads from those families, whose needs were described to "NI" by Irina Aleshina, the director of the Saratov regional public organization "Committee of Large Families".
Andrei Sedenkov has 6 children, four of them are under the age of 16, that is, they could also receive financial assistance from the state in August in the amount of 10 thousand rubles for each:
- I am an entrepreneur, I have a small shop, it was closed for 2 months. I have a training store: books, games, and posters. All the time of self-isolation, we lived on the wife’s salary - she is a civil servant, a teacher of culture, receives 17 thousand a month. It seems that state meets the needs of us - the self-employed, but 80% did not receive it, the reason is simple - this is the so-called OKVED code (Russian Industry Classification System). The sale of books in my OKVED was indicated as an additional activity, and in the Decree it was prescribed: only the main one, but mostly I had a video showroom, I had it some time ago. Well, here we opened on June 1, but the people squandered all the money. Our client is kindergartens, but we have not yet opened them in the region, there are no purchases. They don’t buy gardens, there are no buyers in the store either. And this is really s***y! So in August, these 10 thousand rubles before going to school would be for us as the manna from Heaven, of course.
The situation with Andrei Sedenkov’s store today is not much different from the general state of the economy in Russia. In this situation, according to Ilya Semin, an ONF (All-Russia people's front) expert, deputy chairman of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation Economic Development Commission, the new “August” payments to families with children under 16 years old will certainly become an effective measure, could they help Papa’s 6- bookstore x children:
- This money immediately goes into the economy. They buy products, goods, essential goods, support consumer demand. I don’t know if this money will be paid yet, but it’s for sure - it’s not only a social measure, but also an economic one.
The problem of the Sedankov family is the all-Russian problem of falling incomes.
What is today a family income of 15 thousand rubles a month? Even in a deep province, this is a negligible income.
And what do polls show in Russia? Opinion polls show that, quote:
"During the coronavirus pandemic, the share of Russians with an average monthly income below 15 thousand rubles increased from 38.1% to 44.6%."
Andrei Larionov’s family can soon enter these 44.6% of almost impoverished people in a 140-million-strong country - there are 4 children in it, and so far, the wife is again “on the move”. By the way, now she feeds the family - everything is like in the Sedenkov family... Andrey’s wife receives 34-37 thousand rubles a month, and her husband, also a self-employed, doesn’t:
- My wife is on maternity leave now, and I have a furniture business. I am a small entrepreneur. 1.5 months we stood idle. No one has canceled the lease, no one has canceled mandatory payments either. My first orders will be surrendered only after two weeks, because the furniture manufacturing cycle is quite large. I didn’t even think about helping in August, and my wife - yes, she dreamed about it.
The well-known economist Ilya Semin believes that the Russian state in this difficult time should have paid 10,000 rubles to the future, fifth member of the Larionov family:
- The plan for economic recovery, which was proposed by the ONF (All-Russia people's front - Social Movement - approx. The author of the article), contained a proposal to make payments to pregnant women, too - there is already a little man in his stomach. I consider these payments a very effective measure - this is a targeted measure for families with children, which helps a lot.
Ilya Semin, in an interview with NI, incidentally, said that in order to restore the economy, 10,000 payments for a child should be made before the end of the year - that is, until January 2021.
Due to falling consumer demand: neither the Sedakovs bookstore, nor the Larionovs furniture business could simply not survive without this.
The fact is that according to the Ministry of Economic Development, retail sales turnover fell by 23%. This means that almost a quarter decreased the ability of Russians to buy even something insignificant, inexpensive.
And, of course, such a person will buy books and furniture last.
So, for example, a single mother Veronika Dubinina, who has six children, starts saving for books, notebooks and a school uniform for her children right after... September 1 - that is, he saves a whole year:
- It would be very nice if in August would have paid over 10 thousand rubles per child. I have four people going to school this year, and I need to spend 37,000 each before September 1: textbooks - 12-13,000 rubles, notebooks - from 3,500 to 5,000; stationery - for three - 12,000 plus a daughter goes to the first class; uniform - 12-13 thousand rubles and sports uniform - 3,500 for each...
Her own sister helps Veronika to survive, she herself works at home - the mother of 6 children - a lawyer, lives in a rented apartment, so she has been waiting in line for housing for a year...
Marina Kolosnitsyna, the head of the department of public administration and public sector economics at the Higher School of Economics, said in an interview with NI that 10,000 payments are even beneficial to the state, and they can and should be made further:
- This approach - it is very rational - this is called unconditional transfers. This is when the state pays money to people simply because they belong to a certain social group, for example, these are families with children. In this case, the state does not check the income, does not look: have they lost their work or not, etc. If you start to understand, then make payments differently, then this is a very expensive story. We need to figure out whether a person really needs money, a person needs to collect a bunch of certificates, and, as you know, a certificate can be prepared from us... Now such a system is not good - an inventory of the entire population of the country must be carried out, and it is very expensive.
Everything that is expensive is now simply not up to the state. And the situation, according to the forecast of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration ( RANEPA ), may worsen in the near future, this is stated in the report of the academy, quote:
"Every second working citizen of the Russian Federation may lose his job and part of his income. 50% are exposed to the risks of dismissal, reduction or delay in salary, as well as forced leave."
Unemployment is already becoming the scourge of the Russian economy. According to Rosstat , in April the number of unemployed in Russia amounted to 4.3 million people (23% more than in March). And the Russian Confederation of Labor in early June estimated the number of unemployed at 8 million people.
One of this multi-million army of unemployed is Evgenia Nechaeva , mother of 4 children. She lost her job back in November, when her mother suffered a stroke, and this was already a difficult test, the coronavirus and measures to combat it only aggravated the situation:
- I was able to issue disabilities during the coronavirus only in 8.5 months. When the State Service website "went down", I came to the PF - Pension Fund to apply for the June allowance for children and asked to apply for care for the disabled person as well - we pay 1,200 rubles a month for such care in our country, plus there is still a long service record. They say to me: everything is aimed at children now, and we can only accept you in a month ... 20 000 - for our family this is significant money for which we can put children on for the summer. Prices jumped wildly. If they pay back in August, I’ll just die of joy!
To die because of the joy - that means to get the keys of the apartment - is unlikely to happen in the nearest future with the 500-thousand-strong army of the deceived investors in Russia. They are doing very badly, so badly that some of them even decided to seek help of ...the clergy, we already wrote about this.
All these people, except for mortgages, debts, nervous stresses and other “charms” of waiting for housing, which they paid a long time ago, also have children, and deceived real estate investors dream about the “August” payment for children under 16 years old, no less than parents with many children, and maybe more.
That is why they, without waiting for this article in NI, have long thought about new material assistance from the state, and wrote an appeal to the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin:
"Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich!
We are addressing you as deceived equity holders, shareholders and families with children who have found themselves in a difficult financial situation due to job loss, income cuts, price increases during the period of restrictive measures due to coronavirus, and in these conditions, they have also been waiting for their housing for years. At the moment, thanks to the active position of the All-Russian Movement of deceived equity holders and shareholders in demanding state funding for the completion of abandoned long-term construction projects or compensation, assistance from deputies of the Communist Party faction in upholding this position, which Gennady Andreyevich Zyuganov voiced to you at the State Council on 05/04/2017, and the holding of a number of All-Russian Congresses of interest holders The claims of defrauded real estate investors were heard by you. Although half-hearted, measures have been taken at the legislative level, since the issue has not been resolved everywhere and people are waiting for a solution. Of course, the measures you have taken to support children with direct payments announced in June and July saved the basic needs of our families. And summer is not the best time to find a job. Ahead is August - the time when our families must prepare children for kindergartens, for schools from the 1st to 11th grades, for the first courses of institutes and colleges. Accordingly, these are children under 18 years old. I ask you to additionally support Russian families in this difficult period and in August with direct payments for children. I am sure that you will make this decision about the support of children in August.
Despite the fact that, unlike regions where there are more large families and deceived equity holders, which are much smaller in Moscow, Alexandra Andreyeva, a deputy of the Council of Deputies of the Lefortovo district of Moscow, is also confident that several months were additional costs - food for children, about the "August" payment of 10 thousand rubles to Moscow families, would have come in anyway:
- Very much needed money, but frankly speaking, paying them to the state makes no sense - should they give servants money? I believe that we must first give people money - we have a coronavirus. Most countries of the world pay amounts, allow them to live - this is normal, the fact that we paid 10,000 rubles each is crumbs from the master's table. I would not blame people that they are freeloaders - they are hard workers, and in difficult times they need to be supported, not Rottenbergs.
On July 5, the same Mishustin, who allegedly "had already decided everything about payments to families with children under 16 in August", announced the allocation of more than 4 billion rubles to create temporary jobs. Unemployed will be offered to retrain as builders, collective farmers, drivers, plumbers or janitors.
About the "freebie" - that is, a new payment to families with children in August, the prime minister did not say a word, although economists say that such a payment could not negatively affect the desire of parents to seek work, in any case, the interlocutor of "NI" Marina Kolosnitsyna, Head of the Department of Public Administration and Economics of the Public Sector of the Higher School of Economics:
- What you call a "freebie" is called "free lunch" in English - free meals or a guaranteed minimum income. That is, the state can pay this amount all its life. Students can have one, while families with children can have one. But it’s not the same as our minimum wage, say, but normal, that is, one that a person can normally live on. If a person starts to work, and his income increases, then he is taxed in this case with a large tax, up to 40% -45%. There was such an experiment in Holland. Such a system, it is, in principle, good if a citizen is willing to pay large taxes. In our case, this is a question. When we cover the whole country with a guaranteed income system, this means that taxes should be really high, but no one is willing to pay such a tax.
Arguing humanities with an economist is a thankless task, but I want to note that the people we wrote about in this article are ready today for everything - and for high taxes in the distant future and for anything else, if only to get the coveted 10,000 rubles in August for a child, so that there is something to at least “prepare" the child for the school.
For the comparison
In May, the German government adopted a second package of social assistance worth 1.95 billion euros. The state pays 70% of the salary to those who work in the shortened week. The allowance for each child increased by 185 euros before the end of the year and amounted to 350 euros. Payment of kindergartens is returned. Salaries of parents of children are paid in full if kindergartens and schools are closed. Individual entrepreneurs received 14 thousand euros of interest-free loan.