The well-known consulting company Oliver Wyman continues to make disappointing forecasts about the prospects of Russian civil aviation. First, she published a report, judging by which, in three years, Russian air carriers will lose half of their aircraft. If at the beginning of 2023 there were 736 airliners in Russia, by 2026 their number will be halved.

However, by 2033 this decline will be compensated and will amount to 25%, or 554 aircraft, as Russia will begin to replace Western airliners with its own production aircraft. But it will become possible only in the second half of the 2020s. But according to Oliver Wyman estimates, 76% of foreign aircraft belonging to the fleet of Russian carriers will be disassembled for spare parts by 2033.

Analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan considers these forecasts "extremely optimistic", because, in his opinion, "imported aircraft without maintenance and on counterfeit spare parts can only decrease in quantity, and there are no special prerequisites for increasing the share of Russian aircraft so far: their production is unlikely to have time to cover the decline.

The reasons for such forecasts are known. Firstly, after the start of the SMO, Western companies demanded that Moscow return their leased aircraft. Russia refused to do this, but the West also stopped itself and forbade others to service these aircraft. The resource of Western aircraft engines is designed for a maximum of 5 years and it is impossible to buy them bypassing sanctions on the black market.

True, Russia is trying to arrange the supply of spare parts from the UAE, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan, but one of the world's leading distributors GA Telesis requires guarantees for each specific aircraft, after which negotiations cease. In addition, the Airbus aircraft concern has officially warned all business partners about the rupture of relations if someone helps Russia to service its airliners.

Secondly, experts draw attention to the fact that our country has not yet managed to establish production of its own MS-21 liner, its serial production has already been postponed from 2022 to 2024, and it is possible that this is not the last transfer.