It so happened that buckwheat in Russia has become the main indicator of the speedy arrival of the crisis. Just as gold is a reserve tool for saving money in the world, so for the people buckwheat is a reserve product and the basis for the formation of reserves for a rainy day on a par with sugar.

Why buckwheat is getting more expensive

Bad news has come: analysts expect that by September wholesale prices for buckwheat will increase by about 10% — from the current 41 thousand rubles per ton to 45 thousand rubles. According to Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute of Agricultural Market Conjuncture (ICAR), it's all about the end of the harvest season, the devaluation of the ruble and record export volumes. Just in case, the FAS has already issued a warning to the expert, since his statement may cause a rush of demand and price increases. This is not an accusation of collusion, but only a verbal warning, a recommendation to be careful with words and forecasts. But it is possible that now it is the actions of the FAS that will cause the «Streisand effect». This is when it is the prohibition of an event that dramatically increases its popularity.

Farmers in the past agricultural year have collected a record harvest of buckwheat: according to ICARUS, since September 2022 they have produced 415 thousand tons of buckwheat — this is 27.15 thousand tons or 7% more than it was a year earlier. But these volumes did not lie in warehouses: exports in the agricultural season of 2022-2023 (begins on July 1, ends on June 31 next year) amounted to 262 thousand tons, an increase of 17% or 38 thousand tons. That is, even less buckwheat enters the domestic market than it was before.

Neither the sanctions nor the SMO prevented sending cereals abroad, since the main buyers are Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Moldova and Georgia. Buckwheat is a specialty in the post—Soviet space, so there are no significant problems with exports.

How to stop the price increase

There are two reasons for rising prices: the shrinking supply of the domestic market with products and the hype demand for it. According to the buckwheat price chart, it is possible to determine the beginning and end of crises with high accuracy.

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