Yekaterina Maximova

The State Duma in the third final reading on June 29 adopted the law on the program of long-term savings of citizens. The program will work from January 1, 2024.

President of the HSE in Alexander Khodachek reminds St. Petersburg: according to various estimates, the population has accumulated more than 3 trillion rubles «in stockings». And in order for Russians to form a «cup» by old age, the state will help to save. The potential number of those who can come to the program is more than 30 million people, the Central Bank believes. And the most promising category for innovation is people 40-45 years old.

Novye Izvestia has already reported in detail the details of the program. The authors of the innovation, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, focus on how easy, profitable and reliable it is to bet on long-term savings that will be useful in old age.

So, all funds given to the NSPFs, by analogy with bank deposits, will be insured in the amount of 2.8 million rubles. A tax deduction is provided for large «investors» (it will return up to 52 thousand rubles when paying contributions up to 400 thousand rubles per year). In addition, the authorities are ready to participate: the state will co-finance these funds during the first three years, adding 36 thousand rubles a year. The size of the investments required to get maximum support varies. With an income of up to 80 thousand rubles per month, the state will pay an additional ruble for each invested ruble, with an income of 80-150 thousand — a ruble for two invested, with an income above 150 thousand — a ruble for four invested.

You to me, I to you?

Economist Nikolay Kulbaka believes that the long—term savings program is «not about the benefit of people, but about solving the problems of the deficit budget.»

«This deficit must be covered in some way. In this case, an attempt to make people voluntarily or not so voluntarily carry funds to the state, and not transfer money into foreign currency, not withdraw from the country. So it is done so that this money remains in Russia and the state could use them», — says Nikolay Kulbaka.

Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Financial University Alexander Safonov agrees that the long-term savings program is needed more by the authorities than by the population, because the inhabitants of the country will become a kind of long-term money bank for the state.

In addition, due to long-term savings, the government is trying to increase people's incomes during the retirement age, thereby simply reducing the burden on the same budget for the payment of social benefits.

«Therefore, there are short—term, medium-term and long-term interests of the state», — Safonov adds.

We know, we swam…

It is unlikely that citizens will enthusiastically accept the offer to entrust their money to NSPFs, which will manage them for decades. And in order for long-term savings to develop, the population needs several factors. The main one is the confidence that the proposed system will work as promised at the start.

«Everything would be fine, but the whole question, as always, is whether it will „fly“ in this case or not. And here the first obstacle arises: people have repeatedly seen a lot of transformations of the pension system (both insurance and accumulative) in a short period of time since 2000, so, of course, there is a certain amount of distrust towards such initiatives. Endless discussions and transformations of the pension system have led to the fact that the population has a persistent distrust of both the insurance and the savings system. — says Alexander Safonov. — Remember the story: when did people incur money to banks after the MMM and the 90s? When the system stabilized, when they believed in it. In order to have confidence in the pension system, it should not be touched for a long period of time, not at all. But this condition is not there yet».

Nikolai Kulbaka agrees: Russians are accustomed not to trust such proposals. And the state itself has created this level of distrust.

In addition, Alexander Safonov adds, most Russians are simply unable to invest here and now in their future lives.

«In order to put money for 20-30 years to make deductions, you must have sufficient income. With an average salary of 60-80 thousand rubles, and a median in the region of 45 thousand, the majority of the population simply physically does not have money for contributions to the accumulative pension system. And if, for example, there are one or two children in the family, then this is impossible at all. That's why, of course, such a scheme is not economically feasible for the majority of the population, there are no such resources,» Safonov explains.

Alexander Khodachek adds that it will be easier to find the target audience for the NSPFs program in megacities where earnings are high enough. In poor cities and regions, people need money «here and now».

«The population has no extra funds. They are spent on urgent needs», — says Alexander Hodachek.

Despite the fact that it will be difficult to lure Russians to the stock market through the NSPFs its main meaning is not canceled. «Even if you chip in a little bit from everyone, a ruble from each, you see, and some kind of hole in the budget will close, » Nikolai Kulbaka believes.

What did the Central Bank keep silent about

So far, of course, there is no clear information about how non-state funds that have taken people's rubles into management will multiply them over the years.

Alexander Safonov asks the question: where are all the tools that will ensure the rotation of this money for such a long period of time so that they do not lose purchasing power, but even gain?

«And there are no such tools today. Therefore, when we put all the factors together, it turns out that the time to start applying the new format of a funded pension is not very good», — the expert concluded.

Vasily Solodkov, Director of the HSE Banking Institute, pointed out another nuance that is of great importance for depositors — the repayment of funds.

The law adopted today says that money can be withdrawn at any time, but ahead of schedule without loss of income — only in special life situations: to pay for expensive treatment to a program participant and in case of loss of a breadwinner.

It was the inability to withdraw your money that negated the attractiveness of a similar tool — savings certificates.

«The government together with the Central Bank created savings certificates and deprived them of the secondary market. And they actually turned out to be irrevocable deposits. Now their market share tends to zero for exactly this reason. — says Solodkov. — No sane person will invest for a period of more than one year. Now the government continues to follow the same path with the persistence of a maniac. They offer some irrevocable deposits for some long periods, but I do not know who will need them. Unless they start giving out salaries, as it was at one time with Soviet bonds. The problem is that the economy needs long money, but they are not looking for it at all in the place where they should be. And there's nothing you can do about it. To put it mildly, there is a lack of an obvious understanding of what is happening now».

Rubles