Yelena Petrova, Natalia Seibil

How much grain will be harvested in 2023

This year, a record harvest in No one expects Russia. If 157 million tons of grain were harvested last year, then in 2023-2024, namely, from July to July, the agricultural year is considered, there will not be more than 130 million. Dmitry Rylko, CEO of IKAR LLC, says that the assessment is changing all the time:

— We are currently conducting an inspection of the fields in the South and will change our assessment. Now it is 86 million tons of wheat, 132 — total grain. But we will change the estimate depending on what we see in the margins. This is much lower than last year's harvest. In 2022, 157 million tons of total grain were harvested, of which 104.5 million tons of wheat.

Experts say that the winter crops have overwintered well — 90% of the crops have risen. But there are nuances. In the South and in Volga region drought. No one can say how long it will take and what consequences it will have, the editor-in-chief of the AgroTrend industry portal points out.ru Nikolay Lychev:

— The only thing that can spoil the picture in June and July are dry phenomena and droughts in parts of the Volga region, southern Russia, such as the Volgograd region and parts of the Southern Urals and Eastern Siberia. There is a drought there, but we will collect 130 million tons. We consume 80 million tons, plus reserves that will remain at the level of more than 15 million tons, minus exports. This is the export potential.

In the Volga region, the moisture reserves in the soil turned out to be significantly less than normal. In some areas, the humidity is 20% of the norm. If July is as dry as June, then last year's 22.5 million tons of grain should not be expected. And this is a little less than 20% of the total harvest.

Wheat