The future status of Ukraine: neutrality or re-elections?

Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine , against the backdrop of a military special operation, spoke for the first time about Ukraine's readiness for negotiations on a neutral status. “ Ukraine is ready to negotiate a neutral status with Russia, but it must also receive security guarantees, ” the adviser to the head of the presidential office of Ukraine says in a telegram channel. “Ukraine has always left and leaves space for negotiations. Including now - when Russia went on a full-scale invasion. This war must be stopped. These hostilities must be stopped”, - Podolyak said.

Recall that in his address , President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky noted that he did not see the readiness of European countries "to fight with us and see Ukraine in NATO". This means that "they are afraid," says an adviser to the Ukrainian president. However, Ukraine is “not afraid”, just as it is “not afraid” to talk with Russia about a neutral status and about guarantees, he said.

What is the likely future for Ukraine after the completion of the military special operation? Novye Izvestia asked to express the opinion of a political scientist, international expert Alexey Pilko on this matter.

“Zelensky in his address made it clear that the West does not want to defend Ukraine, in this regard, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are on the agenda. Russia can go to such negotiations: the non-bloc status of Ukraine will suit the Russian Federation. But here a number of points arise. Surely Russia will require Ukraine to recognize the new status of Crimea, as well as the independence of the DNR and LNR. Are Kiev ready for this? The Ukrainian leaders are not saying anything about this today”, - says international expert Alexey Pilko.

As you know, until 2014 Ukraine had a non-bloc status, but then adopted a strategy, one of the directions of which is the country's desire to become a member of NATO and the European Union.

“Here we must not forget that the declared goal of the special operation in Ukraine is denazification. This implies trials and arrests of representatives of radical elements. Putin said that Russia intends to punish those responsible for the tragedy in Odessa. Will Ukraine issue them? Much will depend on how successful the special operation of the Russian troops will be. If Kiev is taken, Zelensky will not be needed by Moscow. No, of course Russia will not join Ukraine. Most likely, elections will be held in Ukraine, there will be a new president. This scenario is quite probable, because so far the military operation of the Russian troops is going quite well”, - political analyst Alexey Pilko believes.

It is worth recalling that the purpose of the special operation carried out by Russia, the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov, called the “cleansing” of Ukraine from “pro-Nazi-minded people” and “neutralization of the military potential”, which has recently “pretty much” grown up. As the Foreign Ministry explained, “this is not the beginning of a war with Ukraine,” but the desire to prevent a situation that would lead to a global conflict.

“If the special operation drags on, the scenario for Russia may be negative, this may lead to a split within the country. As long as the operation is successful, the Russian army is stronger, this is obvious, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also not a gift. And in this regard, it is not superfluous to recall that the NATO special operation against Yugoslavia went on for more than 3 months and led to a serious crisis”, - political scientist Aleksey Pilko believes.

“Zelensky’s plan with negotiations on the neutral status of Ukraine is not ideal for Putin, but acceptable. Ukraine for him in general, in my opinion, is not the main thing. This special operation is a way to distract Russians from pressing issues - declining living standards, corruption, political scientist Abbas Gallyamov believes. - When foreign policy is in the center of attention, when the "enemy is at the gates", it is as if "not the time" to talk about serious domestic problems in Russia. In addition, Putin has on the agenda the 2024 elections, to which he must come with victories. They do not exist in domestic politics, so we must rely on external successes. But his voter wants exactly victory, not coffins. So a protracted military operation with huge losses is not in his interests. Therefore, Moscow can go to Zelensky's proposal for negotiations on a neutral status. Many already remember that Soviet troops entered Afghanistan for a month, and everything stretched out for years. So there will be no ideal way out of this situation for anyone”.