Network analyst Vadim Zhartun gave a funny interpretation of the tactics of the opposition in Belarus in his blog:
“On the occasion of the birthday of the ex-president of Belarus Lukashenko, from 100,000 to 200,000 Belarusians gathered in front of his palace, who congratulated Alexander with shouts“ so you die ”and“ happy birthday, rat”.
So that you understand the scale of these figures: the entire Belarusian army is 65,000 people, of which only 45,000 are servicemen, and there are real combat-ready (special forces) from 4,000 to 6,000.
There are still 12,000 - 15,000 border guards (these, again, are not fighters, but together with the border committee officers.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs is still about 69,000, of which 39,000 are police, 16,000 are civilian personnel, and 14,000 are internal troops.
What else remains? KGB. The data on him are secret, but from what his leadership stated, it follows that the number of the KGB is about 3,000 people.
In total, the security forces for the whole of Belarus on the upper bar are about 45 + 12 + 39 + 14 + 3 = 113 thousand people.
Once again: in Minsk alone, at one time, more people gather in one place for the third time in a row than there are security forces throughout the country.
A logical question arises: why is Lukashenko still at large and even pretending that he is the Tsar-Sovereign of All Belarus?
There can be many answers to it: social inertia, fear of Russia's interference in the implementation of a power scenario, learned helplessness, unwillingness to be the first victim, the desire to do without blood, the protesters' lack of understanding of the scale of their strength, and so on, but none of them really justifies this theater absurdity.
Therefore, I had an insane version explaining why, instead of sweeping the cordons, trampling the riot police and throwing snipers from the rooftops, the protesters dance menacingly, sing, become sophisticated in the art of creative placards and sew huge BCHB flags.
I'll start from afar: the other day a plan of supporters of the elected President Tikhanovskaya was published, which (as far as I understood from his text) boils down to the fact that Belarusians should organize themselves and push their economy to collapse, putting the banking system, utilities and large enterprises on the blades...
What should happen in the end is not quite clear from the plan. Either the riot police and the police will die of hunger, or Lukashenko will say: "God, they are still fucking me", and will run away to normal people.
By the way, about Lukashenko: they say that maniac criminals often subconsciously strive to be caught. And, seeing the weakness of the presented overthrow plan, he gradually tries to help the protesters.
“Look, people, I don’t believe that riot police will be able to protect me from you” - as if he hints, running around the palace with a machine gun. “Anyway, I don’t trust the riot police - I suppose they will shoot me as soon as they smell fried” - and pulls on a bulletproof vest. “Only Kolenka supports me all over the country, what 80% there is…” - and dresses up a 15-year-old brat like Rambo.
And what is the 200,000-strong army of protesters that came to Lukashenko's palace last week, 7,000 of whom were brutally beaten in the torture chambers of Akrestsin Street, forcing them to sing the anthem of Belarus and confess their love to the riot police? In which they shot at close range, at whose feet they threw stun grenades?
But nothing. Turns around and leaves! On Monday to work. Well, as if all the songs for today sang already, settled down, the flowers were handed over to the VVs. The regime was shaken, in short.
Now history has repeated itself: they came, sang, stand. Well, this time they also brought gifts. Lukashenko was waiting for pitchforks, cobblestones, fireworks and Molotov cocktails, and they brought some toys for him. Shock!
Apparently, Lukashenko felt that a simple numerical advantage of 100 times was not enough for the protesters and decided to arm them to the teeth: he drove BMPs and armored personnel carriers into the city. "Here, they say - stop them, throw the conscripts out of the cabins, sit there yourself, and let's go - with cannons against rubber truncheons, if nothing else." I changed into clean clothes myself, took the machine gun so that it should be straight to Valhalla, passed the photo through the press secretary to the plebs. Waiting.
And what about the protesters? “Come on,” they say, “the weather is somehow not very good for an uprising. The rain, you know, doesn't take long to catch a cold. Let's get together next week! " And left again.
And now Lukashenko and Kolya are sitting in the palace and thinking: “What was that all about ?! They're bullying me, huh? Want to torment? To bring to a stroke, so that I did not end up in Valhalla, but in the Naroch sanatorium in a wheelchair? They want to take them alive in order to send them to The Hague? Unclear.."
So, my version (insane) of what happened: after all, dictators in Europe are an endangered species, but this one is still nothing like that, cheerful. Picturesque.
So the headquarters of Tikhanovskaya decided: why should the good be wasted? Let's set up a goblin reserve for hipsters on the site of Lukashenko's residence! Like Belovezhskaya Pushcha, only steeper. Moreover, there is no need to do anything, they will enclose themselves with barbed wire, dug in, and the country will live a normal life without them.
And on weekends, families with children in festive national clothes will come to the palace surrounded by barbed wire, look at the riot police, listen to Lukashenko's flooded trills, have fun, in general. Tourists will come, bring currency into the country, and throw potatoes over the barbed wire so that OMON officers do not die of hunger, and blank cartridges for amusement.
Well, something like that... Long live Belarus!"