The International Monetary Fund publishes its economic forecast for 2022. According to its results, Russia's GDP is expected to fall by 8.5%, Ukraine - by 35%, while India's economy will grow by 8.2%, and China - by 4.4%. Of course, these figures did not go unnoticed by network analysts.
Thus, Pyotr Shchedrovitsky draws far-reaching conclusions about the prospects for our country:
“Naturally, we should not rely on some more or less “objective” statistics on the results of 2022. But framework estimates can be given.
My assessment is that Russia, following the results of this and the next few years, will continue to strive for its objective limit - as a result, 1% of the world population living in the territory of the Russian Federation will produce 1% of world GDP.
In my forecasts, I outlined this framework of “stability” or, more precisely, “stabilization” back in the early 1990s as a natural result of the socialist experiments of the 20th century. Well, as they say - "we can repeat." At the end of 2021, for the record, things were much better: just under 2% of the population produced almost 3% of global GDP. And who bothered?
One more statement: all the events that have taken place in the last 35 years are just a search for a political form of legitimizing the defeat of the USSR in the Cold War, no matter what individual representatives of the ruling class may think.
I do not really believe in the forecasts of world agencies: primarily because they trust official statistics too much. Countries with a low level of “division of labor” in the short term suffer less from changes in their inclusion in the global system, and more in the medium and long term.”
However, another analyst, Dmitry Milin , believes that nothing is predetermined and everything can be changed:
“No economic situation can be so hopeless that the determined will and honest work of the whole people could not cope with it,” wrote Ludwig Erhard.
Example #1 . China. "The penetration of European, Russian, Japanese and American goods into the domestic market of China hastened the destruction of the manual industry" - a description of the situation in the late 19th - early 20th century. And at the end of the 20th - beginning of the 21st, everything is exactly the opposite, Chinese goods are destroying the industry of these countries.
US example #2. “After changing the political system, the government needed funds. Political instability hindered the inflow of capital from domestic investors. Foreign investors played the main role in the country's financial markets - they owned half of the public debt and large blocks of shares in the largest companies. Every time foreign investors withdrew their funds from the country, its financial markets were in a fever and the economy was in recession. As a result of one of these crises, many regions of the country defaulted. After a wave of pyramid schemes, false bankruptcies and other scams, foreign investors called the country a 'nation of scammers'" - this is about the USA in the first half of the 19th century. At the end of the 20th - the beginning of the 21st, everything is exactly the opposite, now, with any economic difficulties, the money of the world immediately rushes to the United States.
Example #3 Japan. In the photo, the samurai are the end of an era. Japan, 1880 In Russia, the battleship Peter the Great was launched in 1877, the battleship Emperor Alexander II was launched in 1887, the battleship Poltava was launched in 1894, and in mid-May 1905 the Japanese defeated the Russian fleet at Tsushima. Nothing is predetermined. The Japanese have gone from bare-assed samurai with spears and bows to defeating one of the strongest fleets in the world in just 25 years!