Posted 9 апреля 2020,, 07:43
Published 9 апреля 2020,, 07:43
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
According to a study, the world is plunging into the deepest recession since the 1930s in peacetime, writes Bloomberg.
According to experts, despite the fact that the decline will be short-lived, it will require a sufficiently long recovery. Analysts argue that even unprecedented measures to support the population and stimulate national economies will not help global GDP return to pre-crisis levels before 2022. Economists point out that fragmented efforts at the national level will lead not only to the second wave of infection, but also to a longer recovery of the global economy, and therefore consolidation of efforts is necessary.
Meanwhile, the EU countries have not been able to agree on a common plan to save the economy. 16 hours of discussions allowed only to come closer to an agreement, but the countries failed to reach it. Eurogroup chairman Mariu Centeno decided to suspend its work until April 9th.
Moreover, the world economy is already suffering enormous "labor" losses. According to the International Labor Organization, 81% of workers in the world lost their jobs due to the shutdown of enterprises. And this is 2.7 billion people out of 3.3 billion. According to ILO forecasts, downtime will lead to the closure of businesses and an even greater increase in unemployment. Experts warn that the global economy is facing such losses as if 195 million full-time people would not work a whole quarter. Moreover, for Russia, the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting outlines the worst prospects - due to a temporary or complete shutdown of enterprises, work may lose 15% of the country's entire workforce.
A coronavirus pandemic could lead to a 32% decline in world trade, according to the World Trade Organization. According to the most optimistic forecasts, the decline will be 13%. Economists, however, suggest that the industry will recover quite quickly - already in 2021. Unless the beginning of this recovery is impossible to predict, because most countries are only preparing to pass the peak incidence of coronavirus. The obvious conclusion is that if the epidemic can be dealt with in the near future, world trade will be able to recover to a pre-crisis level in a year, and if the pandemic continues to gain momentum, then the crisis will drag on.
To date, 1,420,374 cases of coronavirus infection have been reported in the world. 81 730 people died. In Russia, a total of 8 672 cases were recorded, 1,175 cases of them were detected in the last day.