Posted 29 июля 2020,, 12:24
Published 29 июля 2020,, 12:24
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
As you know, Alexander Lukashenko managed to crush all his opponents-candidates, simply not allowing the most dangerous from his point of view to the candidacy. However, in doing so, he underestimated the threat from the female candidate. Around Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the entire Belarusian protest is now spontaneously grouped, which is not only political, but rather psychological.
It is interesting that Tikhanovskaya herself at the last rally directly stated to her supporters: “I do not need power. I want my children and my husband, and to continue frying my cutlets". She does not hide the fact that if she wins the elections, she will refuse to perform her duties and will appoint new elections. In any case, Belarusians are extremely tired of their president: Lukashenko's five consecutive terms are too many even for such a completely conservative country as Belarus.
“With such moods, it is no longer rational thinking that works, but pure psychology, irrational considerations. And Lukashenko did not take this into account, although right now, literally on the run, his regime is trying to restructure.
Technically, Lukashenko’s victory is almost a foregone conclusion - it is obvious that the CEC will agree to any falsifications. However, the price of victory may turn out to be an unexpectedly unpleasant revelation for the Belarusian president. He may well repeat the plot of Maduro, who rigged the 2018 elections and ceased to be legitimate for the West. For Lukashenka, this will become an extremely unpleasant moment, since he is building his policy on a maneuver between the West and Russia, after the victory (if it actually takes place) he will lose one of the pillars of this policy.
The Kremlin is certainly interested in Lukashenko's victory. Moreover, it is in this format - the loss of their legitimacy. In this case, the annexation and final occupation of Belarus will become practically a foregone conclusion. Lukashenko will emerge as the winner weakened and practically incapable of resistance.
However, even in dictatorships, systemic failures occur. Such a failure is also possible for the Belarusian dictatorship. Now it is difficult to assess the degree of fatigue of Belarusians from Lukashenko, how difficult it was to assess the degree of fatigue of Khabarovsk residents from Shport in 2018. The option of Khabarovsk, but already in the entire territory of Belarus, is not at all excluded. Of course, the machine will turn on terror, which is still at a very high level, but terror also has a downside - the radicalization of the protest. And it is completely unclear how the Belarusians will behave after the announcement of the election results. Which, of course, will be voiced in favor of Lukashenka in any scenario. It remains, in general, not long to wait..."
Meanwhile, last weekend, the pre-election rally of Tikhnovskaya in Gomel gathered at least 10 thousand people. Protests were also held in other cities. The Belarusians who have dispersed all over the world draw attention to the elections in the republic with actions in Poland, Sweden, Norway and Spain.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that Lukashenko himself admitted at a regular meeting with security officials that he had suffered the coronavirus on his feet.
Journalist Kirill Shulika writes in connection with this news:
“That is, he could spread the infection, for example, when he met with Putin. This is impossible, as you understand, there even veterans who sat far away at the parade underwent a two-week strict quarantine.
Lukashenko himself, as they wrote many times, was endlessly tested and, despite the fact that he swagged publicly, he feared infection, limiting public events with dubious participants.
However, the President of Belarus has obvious health problems, it is not in vain that the rumors about a stroke are circulating now. He will obviously disappear from time tio time, now there is a reason to talk about the rehabilitation after the coronavirus..."