Posted 31 июля 2020,, 19:34

Published 31 июля 2020,, 19:34

Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37

Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37

"The world is facing the greatest depression". Russian economists make forecasts

"The world is facing the greatest depression". Russian economists make forecasts

31 июля 2020, 19:34
Фото: Twitter
In the US and Germany governments have released quarterly GDP figures. And although such figures were expected by both economists and markets, the shock is still great. Despite the different calculation methods, there is only one conclusion - the world economy is in a deep crisis.

American GDP has reached an all-time low today. In the second quarter, it decreased by 32.9%. This is the worst GDP figure since 1947, when the country started keeping these statistics, although it is slightly better than forecast. Economists had predicted a 34.2% drop.

In America, GDP is calculated differently than in Europe. The calculation is based on the assumption that such growth rates, or, in this case, declines will continue until the end of the year. However, in reality this will not be the case, and the economy will begin to gradually recover, unless, of course, there is a second wave of the pandemic. Compared to the first quarter, the economic indicator decreased by 9.4%.

The pandemic plunged the United States into a deep economic crisis. If in February 2020 there were about 6 million registered unemployed in the country, then in June their number increased threefold - now 17.75 million people are registered at labor exchanges. Over the past week, 1.75 million Americans have lost their jobs.

The situation in Europe is just as difficult. The German statistical office today reported that the GDP of the first European economy fell by 10.1%. After that, the main stock index DAX fell 500 points, or 4%.

Nikita Maslennikov, the Head of Finance and Economics at the Institute of Contemporary Development, says:

- The USA is the number one economy, so it is natural that the larger your economy, the more it bites off. But the effects of a rebound can be dramatic. Today it is a 32% drop, but even with all the revised forecasts towards moderation and decline, such as Goldman Sachs's forecast, they give a drop in the third quarter of 22-25%. Therefore, even the most notorious pessimists do not give them more than a stupid seven percent. We can, in the second wave of the pandemic, fly into a 10-12% fall per year quite simply. They were also influenced by the situation with oil prices and shale oil. Plus a sluggish trade war with China, plus other trade conflicts, and since one in five jobs in the United States depends on international trade, all this leaves its mark. Moreover, world trade fell by 13% in the first quarter, in the second the results have not yet been summed up, but the forecast is the same.

Russian economists are pessimistic about both the world economy and the Russian one.

- These results only strengthened the confidence that the recovery will be much slower than it seemed before, with greater risks of correction in the financial market, because the divergence in the trajectory of financial markets and real economies has come to the point where market correction is inevitable. The only question is when will it start. August is even more or less, and September can be quite disturbing. Although traditionally in August we received negative news from China. Its economy is severely squeezed in terms of debt, overstimulated by loans. Actually, this applies to everyone else. So far, the situation is extremely uncertain, extremely unstable, Nikita Maslennikov believes.

The world will take 5 years to recover, experts say.

Financial and stock analyst Stepan Demura says:

- The fall in GDP was expected. There were forecasts for the American economy and 35% and 40%. Our economy is completely dependent on oil. The correlation of GDP with oil prices is 92%. All conversations about "getting off the oil needle" are Kremlin tales. Accordingly, our situation most of all resembles an anecdote: vodka has risen in price, dad, will you drink less? No, son, you will eat less! Who will consume our oil? The American consumer is in serious condition. Business surveys show that in the restaurant business about 80% leave the market, in general - about 40%. Even those who have now opened are going to close. China is covered with a "copper basin". They have a 52 trillion bubble in the real estate market, about to burst. All. They sailed. You can forget about the restoration of the native Russian economy in 2021. For a long time. Until the world economy recovers. And this will not happen in the next five years. It is not the Great Depression that awaits us, but the Great Depression.