Posted 20 февраля 2023,, 13:44
Published 20 февраля 2023,, 13:44
Modified 20 февраля 2023,, 14:15
Updated 20 февраля 2023,, 14:15
Data from the Central Bank of Russia indicate a constant decline in the quality of borrowers – individuals, due to a drop in their real incomes.
At the same time, some bankers say that in January the situation is getting worse, even the number of customers with current arrears applying for a mortgage is growing. In the primary mortgage market, the share of borrowers with a down payment of less than 20% has already reached 69%, which is also a sign of poor quality of borrowers.
The number of bank borrowers – individuals in the first half of last year decreased from 42.4 to 42.1 million people, and the increase in borrowers – individuals of MFIs for three quarters amounted to 4 million people.
The owners of MFOs note the influx of new customers with a good, often "bank" credit history: the share of borrowers paying on schedule at the end of last year and the beginning of this year is significantly higher than this indicator a year ago. That is, former bank customers are forced to apply for loans, the rate for which is more than 20 times higher than the bank rate.
At the same time, the proportionately increased online demand for jewelry - by 62%, shows an increase in transactions by 94% with a drop in the average check by 16%, to 7 thousand rubles, while turnover in other categories of goods increased by less than 30%. Sales of jewelry, where there is a wide range of prices, and the cost of the product is poorly definable by a layman (i.e. the donee can only very roughly imagine the amount spent on a gift, the savings of the giver are best hidden in this category), are growing more than twice as compared to any other category. Although even with such austerity, Russians have a need to take a microloan.
In connection with this process, experts believe that changes in the terms of loans and loans are possible on the market. In particular, the merging of banks and MFIs may develop, and cases of banks acquiring or creating their own MFIs have been recorded since 2022. As one of the main problems of the current year, experts in the banking industry call the quality of loan portfolios, banks will also be able to create an alternative lending channel – with increased risks and rates. Thus, they will try to increase the volume of retail lending through mortgage loans, even with a reduction in cash loans. At the same time, cash loans can shift to the MFI sector, where they will provide the necessary profitability due to high rates.