Posted 21 сентября 2023,, 10:10

Published 21 сентября 2023,, 10:10

Modified 21 сентября 2023,, 20:46

Updated 21 сентября 2023,, 20:46

Unrecognized get ready! What will happen to Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria?

Unrecognized get ready! What will happen to Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria?

21 сентября 2023, 10:10
The return of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan has put other unrecognized republics of the former USSR in a difficult situation.

The ease with which the international community, and above all, the West, as well as Russia accepted Azerbaijan's victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, inevitably raises the question of the rest of the unrecognized territories of the former USSR:

Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. Surely they watched the «surrender» of Karabakh very carefully. In addition, apparently, the two-century presence in the Transcaucasia of Russia in Transcaucasia is ending, which after the collapse of the USSR no longer had sufficient forces and resources to dictate its policy there. She can only try to maintain her diplomatic, cultural and economic positions, which will also be very difficult.

The main thing for us is to prevent NATO from going there

Experts assess the prospects of the unrecognized republics differently after the events of these days. For example, political analyst Dmitry Mikhaylichenko is confident that the Nagorno-Karabakh case, among other things, has a precedent value for the post-Soviet space: it will be positioned by Azerbaijan as an example of a successful solution to frozen conflicts with territories unrecognized by most countries of the world. And, of course, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, as well as Transnistria are among them:

«The architecture of post-Soviet security and protection against NATOIZATION has been going on for many years through the support of these locations and clear signals that there should be no presence of this organization in the post-Soviet space. The Baltic states, in fact, do not count.

SVO and other factors say that this tactic will be abandoned. Nevertheless, further actions to neutralize these unrecognized territories are possible, first of all, from Moldova and Transnistria. Preparations for this are actively underway in Chisinau and are accompanied by measures to join the European Union. However, it can be a very long process.

In relation to Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, this should not be predicted yet — after all, the leadership of this country is not taking significant steps in this direction. For the Russian leadership, both within the framework of positioning and within the framework of real geopolitics, the key remains to prevent NATO from entering the territory of post-Soviet countries.»

Georgia will look back more on Turkey than on Russia

However, since Russia has shown weakness, Georgia will now listen with even greater attention to the opinion of Baku and Ankara, which has proved its strength and consistency.

According to political analyst Andrey Nikulin, even the current government will take into account the interests of its southern neighbors to a greater extent, but in the event of a change in the political situation and the return of national elites aimed at integration with the West and the restoration of lost territories, Tbilisi's policy will completely lose its current neutral and largely pro-Russian tone.

Azerbaijani offensives were also seen in the Georgian capital, and twice. They also realized that nothing is prescribed for centuries and structures that were erected or guarded with the help of Moscow can be destroyed. And you can win at the same time.

This does not mean immediate revenge, but interaction with Kiev and activity aimed at «reunification of territories» will be intensified. And only the Turkish position can become a limiter here, when Ankara, with its authority, may decide to support Abkhazia or improve its negotiating position.»

Will Russia continue to be squeezed out of the Caucasus?

However, the problem may be even more complicated than the return of «their territories» by Azerbaijan. The fact is that the entire Caucasus, including the Northern One, remains an unstable territory. And we should not forget that the world has not recognized either the Crimea, the DPR, or the LPR as Russian territories either.

The analyst of the Moscow Laundry, for example, does not rule out that all these geopolitical developments may affect Russia itself:

«Now Turkey actually controls the entire Transcaucasia, Israel is building military bases on the borders of Azerbaijan and Iran, Armenia is moving to the sidelines of the big world geopolitics. Iran, which has been waving its fists so menacingly along the borders with Azerbaijan, will now reap the fruits of its helplessness, and Russia has lost at least some influence in the region most important for logistics and security. Azerbaijan, not without the help of Israelis and Turks, has demonstrated its power and capabilities in foreign policy institutions, again with the support of Turkey and Israel. Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs Konstantin Zatulin stated that Azerbaijan's operation in Nagorno-Karabakh is a prologue to further squeezing the Russian Federation out of Caucasus. The actual surrender was only a matter of time, and now that hour has come.

Looking at this «two-day war» or as colleagues correctly clarified, the agreement, Abkhazia and North Ossetia itself will fall off towards Georgia. A return to the borders of the 1990s is becoming a reality. And there the third Chechen one is not far off. The military commander of VGTRK Alexander Sladkov wrote, «if we talk about our diplomacy in this region… To put it mildly, this is a failure.» We remind you that with our diplomacy, similar failures await Russia everywhere. For example, in Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia. A ready-made script for these territories has already been written and is waiting in the wings. Moscow itself approved it.»

You can't give it away or leave it

But as for Transnistria, the situation there is somewhat different, and the players there are different. Alexander Nosovich, an expert on international politics, believes that Moldova is now in an extremely difficult situation, when it will be difficult to return Pridnestrovie, and leave it in its current state, too:

The ease with which Armenia solved the Karabakh issue for itself, in fact, by throwing away a suitcase without a handle, inevitably makes one think that Moldova can just as easily solve the Transnistrian issue by abandoning Transnistria. Moreover, Chisinau is already making attempts to do this.

Will such a radical and simple solution solve Moldova's problem? No, because Moldova is a split country even without Transnistria. Moreover, Moldova, on the contrary, is a fairly homogeneous country with Transnistria. With Transnistria in the Moldavian society, a stable pro-Russian majority and a pro-Western (pro-Romanian) minority are formed in proportions close to those of Belarus. Therefore, the pro-Western authorities in Moldova will never go for the real reintegration of the country. And the West will never allow non-Westerners to do this, just as it did not allow President Voronin to sign the Kozak plan.

Only by abandoning Transnistria, the regime of Maya Sandu will not solve its problems. If he abandons the left bank, directly aiming at removing obstacles to Moldova's integration into NATO, the EU and Romania, then he will only aggravate his problems. Because in addition to Transnistria, there is also Gagauzia, there are large cities that are largely pro—Russian — Chisinau, Balti. Finally, there is a majority of the population who consider themselves Moldovans, not Romanians, and their language is Moldovan, not Romanian.

So on the way to NATO without Transnistria, Moldova's problems will not end, but will begin.»