Russia ranked ninth in the world in terms of growth in housing prices - it rose in price by more than 11% in the first quarter, Knight Frank analysts calculated. In terms of the rate of price increase, Russia has overtaken the UK, Norway and Canada. The three world leaders look like this:
1. Turkey - 32%
2. New Zealand - 22.1%
3. Luxembourg - 16.6%
9.Russia - 11%
Further dynamics will depend on the fate of the preferential mortgage, experts say. The main driver of price growth was the preferential mortgage, which has already been extended and will probably be extended again in the summer, which is actively lobbied by Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin. The program can be prolonged with the condition of raising the rate on it from the current 6.5% to 7%, while the credit limit under the program will be reduced to 3 million rubles. Other sources say that the rate will rise to 7.5% and the program will be extended for at least a year.
Elvira Nabiullina, the chairman of the Central Bank, is against preferential mortgages. If Khusnullin sees it as an important driver of growth for the entire domestic economy, contributing to an increase in the supply of housing due to the loading of the construction and related industries, then since the end of last year, Nabiullina has been demanding timely (that is, as soon as possible) to curtail state aid to those wishing to receive additional square meters ...
According to the head of the Central Bank, this program does not give a real economic effect, since it basically “unfreezes” ready-made and previously unclaimed objects, accelerates inflation and contributes to inflating a “mortgage bubble”, increasing the risks of the financial and credit system.
However, a recent study showed that in 90% of cases, preferential mortgages were taken not by families with children, but by investors for resale or rent, - experts from the Catharsis channel write.
Analysts at another popular channel, Nezygar, believe that the preferential mortgage lobbyist, Vice Prime Minister Khusnullin, will have to answer two main questions:
Both questions are ambiguous. In conditions when it was impossible to revitalize the real sector, and the service sector received a crushing blow due to the pandemic, the stake on real estate was quite an obvious decision. But short-term.
However, now new sources of growth are needed, which are not yet observed.