The basic scenario of analysts described in the new medium-term forecast for the development of the Russian economy implies a “significant weakening” of the Russian currency in the second half of this year. The decrease, experts write, will be caused by a new decline in oil prices, a seasonal increase in domestic demand for currencies and an outflow of capital from emerging markets, including the Russian one.
According to economists, from the fourth quarter of 2020 until 2022, fluctuations between 87 and 91 rubles are expected. for a dollar. In an optimistic scenario, the exchange rate of the American currency in the fourth quarter will exceed 87 rubles, and in a pessimistic scenario, it will exceed 100 rubles.
According to Dmitry Belousov, head of analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes at CMASTF, the baseline scenario includes the second wave of coronavirus outbreak in the world and, as a result, the introduction of new quarantine restrictions, which made it possible to predict very low oil prices. Seasonal demand for the currency will also significantly weaken the ruble.
“Always in the second half of the year there is a purchase of currency by importers and the population on New Year's holidays”, - Belousov noted.
CMASTF suggested that quarantine in Russia will last until the end of the current month, while in the fourth quarter the second wave of the epidemic will be recorded, which will last about two months. Estimated losses of gross regional product of large cities will amount to 20%. From the end of the year to the end of the next, oil prices will fluctuate between $ 35-37, and demand will slowly grow. At the same time, export volume restrictions will continue until the end of 2021.
Today, the dollar is gradually falling, showing on June 1 the first since the beginning of March overcoming the mark of 70 rubles.
According to Bloomberg, the refusal of citizens from foreign trips before the end of this year can positively affect the strengthening of the Russian currency. If the Russians do not have to spend income in Turkey, Thailand and other usual foreign resorts, this will partially compensate for the losses from falling oil prices.