Morning trading began with the strengthening of the dollar by more than 4%, the rate jumped up to 64 rubles. Euro ruble pair also in vigorous dynamics - plus 3% (65.5 rubles per euro).
It has not been possible to stop the anomalous strengthening of the ruble since the spring. The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has set a clear course: by the end of the year, the dollar should consolidate at a level of at least 76 rubles per dollar.
Financial analysts believe that the national currency, four months later, nevertheless moved along the route indicated by the department.
“We all understand very well that we are talking about foreign exchange interventions <…>, so I don’t expect any surprises here. Namely, the planned movement is 73-75 or so. Apparently, interventions will continue, and the reason for this is a very specific and clear indication. Conclusion? Of course, the ruble may stabilize at certain levels for some time. For example, 60 for the dollar, but only as a step before the next decline. The ruble is needed by both the country and exporters at a level no stronger than 70-75. That's the goal for you,” commented investment banker, HSE professor Evgeny Kogan.
BCS Express expert Mikhail Zeltser also believes that the national currency will continue to weaken. “The medium-term exchange rate is the same - a return of 70 per dollar, and there are reasons for this: the likelihood of the return of the budget rule in a modified form with an emphasis on friendly currencies (yuan), the saturation of the country with imports after the spring collapse in supplies, the narrowing of exports against the backdrop of a correction in commodity prices and the introduction of bans EU and USA. The monetary cycle of the Central Bank will also add drive to foreign currencies, because the easing of the monetary policy (monetary policy, - ed.) reduces support for the national currency,” Mikhail Zeltser believes. According to his forecast, the nearest benchmarks are about 67 rubles per dollar.
The head of the "Analysis of industries and financial markets" departments of Promsvyazbank Evgeny Lyutikov , in turn, confirms that the dollar has potential for growth, but in order to consolidate the trend for the weakening of the ruble to fundamentally justified levels (the area of 70-80 rubles per dollar), news confirming expectations. “An additional factor can be the gradual activation of importers who need foreign currency to replenish stocks and prepare for the fall. For today, the current range for the dollar will be the zone of 60-65 rubles,” Evgeny Lyutikov commented to Finam.
The Russian currency has shown anomalous strengthening since spring against the backdrop of a sharp decline in imports and the introduction of foreign exchange restrictions. Also, the exchange rate was affected by the obligation of exporters to convert their revenues into rubles. From February 28, they were required to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings, then the bar dropped to 50%. Yesterday President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing exporters not to return foreign exchange earnings to Russian accounts.
Recall that in May, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation provided the government with an important document with the main parameters of the scenario conditions for the forecast of the country's socio-economic development for 2023. The agency predicts that the average annual fluctuation of the exchange rate in the current year will be kept within the boundaries of 76.7 rubles. per dollar. By the end of 2022, the Ministry of Economic Development expects the dollar to reach 76 rubles.