The decision on a possible reduction in the rate, which is now 4.25% per annum, the Central Bank may take at a meeting of the board of directors on February 12. Analysts are not sure that the Central Bank will go down. Some experts agree that the rate will remain unchanged after the meeting.
“Even if we assume a reduction in the key rate, a fall in mortgage rates should not be expected, since the program of preferential mortgages continues to operate at present. In addition, further extension of this program in certain regions is possible”, - RIA Novosti quotes the statement of the director of the National rating agency (NRA) Konstantin Borodulin.
According to Maxim Markov, associate professor of the Department of Financial Markets at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, there is no point in expecting an instant change in the situation after the Central Bank rate adjustment, since the change in bank rates after the Central Bank's decision occurs with a certain time lag. Banks need time to adapt to new conditions and to reassess the cost of credit products.
In 2020, the key rate dropped by 2 percentage points amid the coronavirus pandemic. Markov believes that the process of banks' adaptation to this situation is not over yet.
The NKR rating agency added that mortgage rates depend on deposit rates, of which mortgages are mainly financed. If the key rate is lowered, it may further "drop" the rate on deposits, but today it has already fallen below the inflation rate, provoking an outflow of deposits from banks. In this regard, experts are convinced that a noticeable decrease in mortgage rates in Russia will not happen anyway.