Alexei Kudrin predicted a banking crisis in three months
Within three months Russian banks may need state assistance because of a sharp deterioration in the situation of business and consumers who will inevitably face difficulties in payments for previously taken loans, said the head of the Accounts Chamber Alexei Kudrin.
He stated this in an interview for RBC.
"So far the crisis stage is such that first of all you need to think about the people. But if our economy does not restart, if the companies shrink as a result, in two months all the bad debts of these companies which are not able to continue this work further, will spread on the banks”, - Kudrin explained.
At the same time, he did not equate the current crisis with the one that the country experienced in 2008-2009, when the Central Bank allocated 3.4 trillion rubles to support credit organizations. tax-free loans, and another trillion authorities poured from the budget into the capital of Sberbank, VTB, VEB and Russian Agricultural Bank.
However, Kudrin is sure that “bad debts” cannot be avoided. He stressed that now there is an accumulation of risks in the country - restructuring of loans for small businesses, deferment of payments so far "is at the expense of banks." This "creates a decrease in profits, and ultimately the capital of banks."
This cannot go on forever. Moreover, the margin of safety in the system will be exhausted in the foreseeable future - maximum, in the fall.
“In three months it will be approximately sensitive for the banking sector, in six months in full,” says Kudrin.
He added that banks may require direct capital injections. In addition to overdue loans, the balance sheets “tear” the collapsed value of assets on the Russian market.
“It is obvious that these are pledges in the banking system and the capital of these banks, they will greatly violate the proportions of possible active and passive operations,” the head of the Accounts Chamber warned.
We have to recall that the amount of debt with late payments or the risk of default from 6.7 trillion rubles. can grow to 13.45 trillion rubles. Such a disappointing forecast for Russian banks was given by analysts at the international rating agency Moody's. The agency also recalled that Russian banks are the weakest in the BRICS.
Earlier, both Moody's, Fitch, and S & P lowered the forecast for the banking system in Russia to “negative”. Experts note that the share of problem loans can grow from 10% to 20%.
The Central Bank announced that on March 1, the loan portfolio of Russian banks amounted to 76.35 trillion rubles. Thus, the total volume of those “bad debts” will grow to 13.45 trillion rubles. - that is, up to 13% of the country's GDP.