The Expert RA rating agency has published the results of a study devoted to forecasts of the financial stability of Russian banks in the current year.
According to researchers, almost every tenth credit institution will face serious problems over the next 12 months. At the same time, more than three dozen banks face a default, provoked by a massive outflow of deposits amid the pandemic. At the end of 2020, the outflow of deposits reached a record scale: clients dissatisfied with the negative profitability of deposits began to massively withdraw money from their accounts and look for new areas to preserve capital. Investments in real estate have become especially popular against the background of low mortgage rates.
"The value of the index at 91 percent as of January 1, 2021 means that up to 33 credit institutions (9 percent of the index's calculation base) at the horizon of 2021 are in a high-risk zone", - RIA Novosti quotes the results of the study.
According to analysts, after weak players leave the market in Russia, the banking sector will consolidate. Experts believe that small banks can voluntarily waive licenses, and some companies are waiting for absorption by larger credit institutions.
After weak players leave the market, analysts expect an increase in the health index of the banking sector. However, it is not worth waiting for a quick recovery, since the bank's work is closely related to the recovery of the entire Russian economy, which was seriously affected during the pandemic.