A few days ago, against the backdrop of important decisions by the government and the Central Bank (cancellation of the requirement for exporters to sell 50% of foreign exchange earnings, reduction of the key rate), the dollar slowed down in its fall for a short time, but this does not mean anything. And when the fall in quotes stopped, some analysts called this reversal formation for the US currency a “double bottom”.
Finam analyst Alexander Potavin explained to Novye Izvestia that a “double bottom” is when the price of an asset falls, bounces up, then comes back down again. And now the Russian currency continues to trade very strongly against the dollar and the euro.
So, by the end of last week, the American currency lost another 4.3%, the rate dropped to 56.8 rubles. Yegor Zhilnikov, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank, believes that in the coming days the rate may drop to 55 rubles per dollar. “The key driver for the decline in the dollar-ruble pair may be the expansion of the dollar supply overhang in the foreign exchange market due to the approaching conversion of foreign exchange earnings by exporters before tax payments”, - Zhilnikov explained.
According to Alexander Potavin, the situation will be affected not only by the next tax period for exporters, but also by the unpleasant news that came in June for currency holders on accounts and deposits. Banks, we recall, began to introduce negative rates and commissions on foreign currency deposits. “Therefore, companies, banks and individuals continue to get rid of the currency in their accounts. As a result, the ruble exchange rate is strengthening, thereby causing damage to the Russian budget and exporters”, - said Alexander Potavin.
Potavin also recalled the key factors that have been helping the ruble to grow for several months now: “After the introduction of restrictions on the withdrawal of capital abroad, three factors influence the ruble exchange rate: the balance of exporters and importers, investment and speculative transactions with the currency of Russian banks and funds, a sharp reduction in trade between Russia, the US and the EU.
Potavin predicts that Russian regulators - the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance - will soon begin to take a number of additional actions to weaken the ruble. “The next such action will be the emergence of a new budget rule, under which the Ministry of Finance (or some other body) will buy foreign currency in the amount of excess profits, thus balancing the record volumes of foreign currency sales from oil and gas exporters. Work on a new budget rule is already underway. Its launch will lead to a halt in the strengthening of the ruble and, possibly, to its medium-term weakening”, - Alexander Potavin explained to Novye Izvestia.
Recall that in June, several Russian banks from the TOP-20 division announced the introduction of fees for servicing foreign currency accounts of their clients. This is because $90 billion has accumulated in the accounts, which have become “toxic” for banks. Banks, literally inundated with foreign currency, incur at least infrastructure costs on foreign currency accounts and try to make up for the costs through new commissions.
Earlier, federal officials said that a comfortable dollar exchange rate for the country's economy and for exporters is at least 70 rubles.