Investment banker Kogan about currency: "Today we can expect quite tough decisions"

Investment banker Kogan about currency: "Today we can expect quite tough decisions"

Investment banker Kogan about currency: "Today we can expect quite tough decisions"

22 September, 18:08
HSE professor, investment banker Yevgeny Kogan warned the Russians that the foreign exchange market is becoming unpredictable and now "we can expect any and quite tough decisions." Those who have not yet got rid of the "toxic" currency, the investment banker believes, urgently need to take active steps.

Yekaterina Maksimova

In his official public on the social network VKontakte, Yevgeny Kogan described the main risks. "Recently, there has been a strong feeling that time has been compressed. Events are happening. You are looking for answers to everything that happens. You are trying to analyze all this and understand - what, in fact, is next? But for now ... it arises so quickly.... No normal analysis is elementary And it's really hard to stay objective and not get emotional".

The “fresh” and main risk factors for the Russian economy, the expert referred to attempts to expel Russia from the UN Security Council, the expected new package of sanctions from the European Union, new sanctions in the field of technology, emphasis on secondary sanctions for countries that continue economic ties with Russia.

"It is expected that the new package will include: a plan to limit prices for Russian oil, personal sanctions, as well as a ban on the import of diamonds and other luxury items from the Russian Federation. This seems to have been known for a long time and there is nothing new here. Although, perhaps, in In this case, the key issue is rather the details. Today, the issue of the NCC (National Clearing Center) can again be raised quite sharply. And, of course, all those banks that have not yet been disconnected from SWIFT", - explains Kogan.

The investment banker believes that the Russians need to prepare for fleeting events and play it safe.

"If you have dollars or euros in your account and you have not yet transferred them to your account with a foreign bank - either promptly transfer or convert out of harm's way into another currency, such as the Hong Kong dollar, yuan, dirhams, etc. I'm afraid it's time for there is not much left to think about," the expert advises.

For overseas property owners, Kogan recommends preparing for the problems associated with paying utility bills. “If you have real estate in Europe, for example, and you pay utility bills from some European bank account, it would probably make sense to be puzzled by the rapid substantial replenishment of this account. Who knows if there will be such an opportunity in the future", - warns Kogan.

He also does not exclude that the exchange may also have problems with currency conversion.

"Well, in general. I highly recommend breaking away from the hustle and bustle of the daily routine of affairs in the very near future, sitting down and thinking very carefully. There will be new sanctions. It is almost inevitable. These sanctions can affect very, very many people. They can hit your savings, your plans. Lead to your failure to fulfill your obligations and very seriously affect your life", - the economist concluded.

Kogan's personal opinion coincided with the statement of the head of the Supervisory Board of the Moscow Exchange Sergei Shvetsov, who does not exclude the refusal to trade in the dollar and the sale of the right to trade this currency.

“Hypothetically, I do not exclude that trade investment relations with the outside world will be non-dollar and the dollar will lose its function - I do not exclude that it will no longer be of interest to either the regulator or the stock exchange. Business (dollar trading platforms, - ed. ) can be sold," Shvetsov specified (quote from RBC).

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