The Ministry of Finance’s liquidity reserves of the National Wealth Fund (NWF) of the Ministry of Finance may be exhausted in two years if Urals brand oil costs $ 15 per barrel, analysts at Deutsche Bank say. Urals was traded at $ 12 this week.
If Russian raw materials rise in price to $ 30, the means of the NWF would be enough for six years. Such forecasts were made by economists of Deutsche Bank Peter Sidorov and Christian Vetoshki, writes RBC.
The authors note that to date, the size of the NWF is about $ 120 billion after the Finance Ministry purchased a controlling stake in Sberbank from the Bank of Russia for 2.1 trillion rubles. ($ 28 billion). At current exchange rates, the liquid part of the NWF is equivalent to about 9 trillion rubles.
“With Urals, $ 15 each will be enough to cover the deficit of oil and gas revenues for a little over two years.” But this period will be closer to six years if Urals costs $ 30, experts say.
Recall that the Urals consignment for Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean ports collapsed to $ 11.6-12.1 per barrel. This figure is very close to the 1999 minimum level. The price fell amid falling European and American futures. For example, Texas WTI futures for the first time in history dropped to minus $ 37.6 per barrel.
The situation in the market is when oil producers increased supplies on the one hand (after the collapse of the OPEC + deal), and on the other hand, the demand for raw materials fell sharply due to the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, oil storages began to overflow around the world, and manufacturers began to offer unprecedented discounts on their “black gold”.
New oil production reduction agreements agreed by OPEC + participants will enter into force in May. Along with this, experts expect a recovery in demand for raw materials. According to analysts, quotes Urals by the end of 2020 should recover at least to $ 25-30.