According to Forbes magazine, the World Bank report on the outlook for commodity markets warns that the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and the energy situation will be long-lasting, and the price crisis will be the strongest since the 1970s.
Experts called the situation with prices a “large-scale commodity shock”. They believe that the increase in prices for foodstuffs, of which Russia and Ukraine are major producers, as well as for fertilizers, in the production of which natural gas is used, was the most significant since 2008.
WB experts saw a threat to the oil market in the expansion of EU sanctions against Russia. The reserve capacity of the cartel of oil producing countries OPEC, the report notes, may be less than they are currently estimated, and shale oil production in the United States will suffer from a shortage of labor. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources will be delayed in the new environment, analysts predict.
In addition, aluminum and nickel, which are so necessary for alternative energy, according to WB calculations, will rise in price by 37% and 51%, respectively, in 2022, including due to difficulties with supplies from Russia.
It also follows from the report that the rise in gas prices in 2022, including in Europe by 111%, will lead to an increase in the price of fertilizers by almost 70% and an increase in the cost of agricultural products. Farmers' products will increase in price due to the refusal of farmers from fertilizers, the subsequent decrease in yields and a reduction in supply.
The World Bank draws the attention of the UN to the fact that food prices in 2022 will grow in the world by an average of almost 23%, for wheat - by more than 40%. And this can lead to starvation in various regions of the planet.
The World Bank currently has two goals that it aims to achieve by 2030. First, end extreme poverty in the world. Second, improve overall human well-being by increasing income growth in the world's poorest 40% of countries.
The World Bank is headquartered in Washington, but it has offices in more than 130 countries, including Russia.