The Omicron strain: the end of the pandemic or the beginning of the fifth wave of coronavirus?

Today in South Africa there has been an explosive growth in hospital admissions, 16% of patients on mechanical ventilation and in intensive care. Novye Izvestia figured out what to prepare for.

Irina Mishina

Omicron: from South Africa to England, then - everywhere

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called to "put aside" the idea that the disease caused by the Omicron strain is mild. He urged to pay attention to the speed of the spread of the new variant of the coronavirus. Omicron now accounts for 20% of cases of infection in the UK, in London - 44% of cases. Omicron has already been identified in 63 countries, the World Health Organization said. It is predicted to spread at a faster rate than the Delta strain.

At the same time , Olga Matveeva, a molecular biologist and founder of the American biotechnology company Sendai Viralytics , who closely monitors the spread of the omicron, published sensational data on her blog:

In just a week, the number of hospitalized people in South Africa increased to 5,944 people, of which 16% are on mechanical ventilation and in intensive care units. Most of the other "omicron" struck the province of Guanteng, there on mechanical ventilation and in intensive care 18% of patients. It's a lot.

“Over a month in South Africa, the number of patients hospitalized with Omicron, a strain of coronavirus infection, has increased by 10 times. A large number of patients in intensive care and on mechanical ventilation suggests that this is by no means a light virus and not a "live vaccine", as some scientists are trying to present this strain. It's all very complicated. Now the virus has been isolated, scientists have identified its code, researchers are worried about how exactly this strain has a spike protein disguised, with which it enters the human body. This strain differs in that it escapes antibodies in those who have been ill and vaccinated. It saddens me that eminent Russian scientists, who are quoted by the world media, say that this strain is harmless. The facts show that this is not so , ”says Olga Matveeva, molecular biologist and founder of the American biotechnology company Sendai Viralytics.

Now, medical officials in many countries are trying to calm people down. Some argue that Omicron is the light at the end of a tunnel called a pandemic. It seemed that all that remained was to vaccinate the refuseniks, and everything would return to the old serene times. But something went wrong again.

“We have never had anything like this in any of the options. This is a completely new option, unrelated to any of the other options, it is on its own evolutionary branch, completely separate from the others, ”said Professor Barry Schub, South African government pandemic adviser who is likely to be knows more about Omicron than anyone else. Indeed, in this strain, scientists have already identified 32 mutations in the spike protein, which interacts with human cells when it enters the body. That is why, according to experts, this strain better than others bypasses the immune defense, including that formed by vaccines.

Will Omicron bring the coronavirus pandemic to an end?

The famous Russian scientist, molecular biologist, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Laboratory of the Institute of Molecular Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences Petr Chumakov declared Omicron a "live vaccine", "a harbinger of the end of the pandemic."

“It is very likely that the Omicron strain has mutated in the body of an AIDS patient, which in South Africa is up to 30%. And in the body of an immunodeficient patient, the virus can stay for much longer, the immune system does not resist it, because it is weak. In this regard, "immunodeficient" patients are very dangerous for the spread of new mutations of coronavirus infection. The omicron strain has 32 mutations, and this is far enough from the original variant of Covid-19. The virus, in my opinion, has become less pathogenic and more infectious. This means that the epidemic will soon subside , " Academician Pyotr Chumakov told NI. However, he admitted that in order to resist a new scourge, significantly more antibodies are needed than for the Delta strain.

Russian virologist, doctor of medical sciences, professor Anatoly Alshtein agrees with him:

“Now our scientists are talking about the possibility of making a vaccine that will be inoculated against this strain. But if the mortality rate is low, the vaccine may not be invented. I don’t know yet how deadly this virus is. ”

The Russian scientists' point of view was quickly picked up by officials. Head of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation Mikhail Murashko notify l that this mutation infected Russians transferred COVID-19 in an easy manner.

Isn't this a hasty statement?

“The Omicron strain, among other things, is dangerous in that it can bypass the antibodies of those who have been ill and vaccinated. And I am alarmed that they speak of him as harmless enough. We see how the situation is rapidly deteriorating in South Africa, in the homeland of Omicron. Most likely New Year's holidays, when people are mostly at home, the situation with the incidence will be smoothed out, but then, in February, it will continue to grow. Such a scenario is not excluded, and it is now irresponsible to talk about the near end of the pandemic , ”says molecular biologist Olga Matveeva.

How to distinguish infection with the Omicron virus from other strains

We decided to contact doctors working with covid-19 patients. Darya Khavkina, a researcher of the clinical department, a therapist of the Moscow Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology named after Gabrichevsky Rospotrebnadzor, said: “So far, it is only known that the majority of those infected with omicron in the world are young people, from 20 to 30 years old. But with a high probability, I admit that the situation in Russia will turn out differently. "

Doctors refer to the main symptoms of Omicron as severe weakness, fever, headache, cough and loss of appetite. These signs are accompanied by lung damage. At the same time, loss of taste and smell is much less common than with other covid strains. There is still little information about the symptoms in children, but doctors drew attention to the fact that, in addition to the listed symptoms, they often (in 15% of cases) develop a rash. It is noted that as the disease progresses, some patients begin to feel a lack of air. An increase in temperature was recorded in more than 90% of patients, a dry cough - in about 80%, chest tightness - in more than 20%. The disease manifests itself as an acute severe respiratory syndrome, often in the form of pneumonia.

There is also some very bad news. Most of the cases in the United States with the "Omicron" strain of coronavirus have been vaccinated. These data are published in a report by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Reuters reports. According to the ministry, 34 out of 43 cases of the disease were detected in those who had been vaccinated, 14 of them also received a booster dose of the drug. At the same time, experts noted that five people became infected less than 14 days after full vaccination, when the body has not yet received full protection.

This is confirmed by biologist Irina Yakutenko :

"According to scientists, many of the new mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome indicate a high transmission rate of this strain and resistance to protective antibodies of those who have been ill and vaccinated, although it is too early to draw final conclusions."

Do vaccines protect against the Omicron strain

Also, according to scientists, the two components of the Pfizer vaccine are not enough to avoid contracting the omicron strain, a third dose is needed. The Gamaleya Center reports that it has begun to adapt vaccines to the new strain of coronavirus. Experimental work on adaptation of the Sputnik V vaccine to the omicron strain will take no more than 10 days. This was announced by the head of the Center. Gamalei Alexander Gunzburg.

But according to experts, the statement that this strain is not dangerous is much worse than Omicron itself. However, this topic was quickly picked up by the authorities and began, in fact, to curtail anti-epidemic measures. So, in Russia, the State Duma Council rejected a bill on the mandatory introduction of QR codes in February, in particular, in transport.

“The words of scientists that the omicron is contagious, but not dangerous, wanted to hear many around the world, because everyone was tired. Therefore, these conclusions of Russian scientists fell on fertile soil and were picked up by government agencies. But statistics, upon close analysis, suggest otherwise. If such sentiments win, it will be very bad. Medical beds will begin to fold, people will relax, no longer wear masks and no longer maintain social distance, and the incidence will begin to rise unpredictably. With regard to vaccination, everyone decides for himself. The vaccine is a bulletproof vest. But if you crawl under the bullets in a bulletproof vest, death is inevitable. Vaccinated people must comply with all anti-epidemic measures, especially if someone is sick at home , ”says Olga Matveeva, an American molecular biologist and founder of the Sendai Viralytics biotechnology company.

As for the spread of the Omicron strain in Russia, it can be considered that it has already taken place.

“One of the 'drifts' [of the new strain] to Europe was from Egypt. We have restored communication with Egypt, so we can expect: if this option exists in Egypt - and it probably does exist - then the "drift" has already occurred", - says biologist Irina Yakutenko.

We contacted the operational headquarters for the fight against coronavirus and asked a question: will air traffic between Russia and South Africa be closed, where there is an explosive increase in the incidence of the Omicron strain? No definitive answer had been received at the time of publication. However, as we remember, at the very beginning of the pandemic, planes flew to Russia and from Wuhan, from the homeland of Covid-19, and our officials got off with excuses about this. They even said that the "Chinese infection" did not seem to pose any danger to Russia.

In general, we have already gone through all this...