If quarantine drags on, the unemployment rate in Russia could rise from pre-crisis 4.6% to 15%, analysts at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) said.
In the near future, the unemployment rate will rise to 8-10% , but if the economic crisis goes according to the most negative scenario, then the indicator will be at the level of 12-15% . A favorable scenario assumes unemployment at the level of 6-7%. The increase in unemployment is directly related to the scale of the crisis, experts say, but by the end of this year the situation will begin to improve.
- The number of unemployed in Russia may increase from pre-crisis 4.6% two or even three times depending on the scale of the crisis, but by the end of 2020 the situation may begin to improve. It is important to take steps to manage the business’s return to work, with strict protocols and monitoring, the review says.
According to analysts, in the world against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic in the next couple of months, every sixth person may be left without work. About 2 billion people risk losing their jobs or switching to part-time jobs this year.
According to the Federal State Statistics Service, last month the number of unemployed in Russia increased from 3.5 million to 4.3 million people. Compared to March, the unemployment rate rose by 23% to 5.8%.
In turn, the Ministry of Labor proposed to ban the dismissal of employees during the coronavirus pandemic. The ministry has developed a draft decree, which proposes to prohibit also sending employees to idle time at the initiative of the employer. Break the employment relationship, according to the decree, will be possible only at the initiative of the employee.